@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Forward #1 Ian Callinan, Adelaide $80,400

@Dreamteam_Guru rated player – unrated.

Callinan is unrated as he is only a rookie.

I don’t see him staying on the rookie list for long though.

At 28, they have recruited him for a reason. To play, and to play now.

After playing for Tassie at state level (within the VFL competition), Callinan has spent the last few years playing in the SANFL – and dominating both competitions.

Rumour has it that height is the only thing that has prevented him from being taken in previous years by other clubs.

Listed as Mid/For this year and just over $80K makes Callinan a steal.

He will play, he will increase in value both to you and the crows.

He has to be the Michael Barlow of 2011.

Let’s just hope he can elevated early in the season so we can pick him straight away.

If not, there are plenty of other mid/for that you can replace him with – but for value and for instant impact – Callinan is number one for me.

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Ruck #1 Daniel Gorringe, Gold Coast $124,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 532^nd Player in the league

Traded for Sydney’s Shane Mumford, Ruck $332,000

@Dreamteam_Guru 231^st player in the league

Traded for Carlton’s Robert Warnock, Ruck $240,900

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 413^th player in the league

Why did I pick Gorringe? He is a cheap ruck. He was top 10 in the draft and he plays for the Gold Coast so I am pretty sure he will get game time.

Why did I trade him out? With other trades I made, I had saved a lot of money.  I had 2 value picks, and one lock in the ruck department, but the selection of Gorringe has troubled me.  Especially when he didn’t line up for the Suns in the first round of  NAB cup. 

I had traded away a Swan as part of my team set up, but with their bye safety, I thought that bringing a Swan in to the ruck would give me good cover throughout the season.  With the money spare, and Mumford a certain starter it was a good choice to make.

Let’s look at the players around Mumford and see if it was a good choice for a substantial outlay of money.

226. Kyle Reimers (162)
227. Brett Ebert (162)
228. Paul Bevan (162)
229. Shane Mumford (162)
230. James Frawley (161.667)
231. Chad Cornes (161.667)
232. Jeff Garlett (161.5)

Mumford is the only one on this list that’s in my team.  He is also the only one I considered.

Mumford averaged 80 last year. This is despite his 3 year average being 53.6667.  Last year saw a big improve, and I am hoping he keep it up this year.

Again, on review I decided I didn’t want to spend too much on my ruck division.  My third and fourth players are capable starters, so I decreased to Warnock. This freed up some money for me to spend in defence where I upgraded my value pick to a keeper defender.  This will be revealed in a later BLOG though!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Midfielder #4 Mitch Wallis, Western Bulldogs $92,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 552^nd player in the league.

Mitch Wallis was one of my first picked players this year.

I do like the father/son rule, and the mail coming out of the kennel is that Mitch would have been a top 10 pick if they hadn’t already snaffled him with their father/son choice.

His figures in under 18 competitions had him as an elite in his year group, and the talk from the club’s intraclub games is that he is fitting in just fine at Footscray.

If he doesn’t line up in round 1, I will trade him out, but I will be looking at picking him up again later in the season.

Its a hard choice – do you pick the player that excelled in his generation? Yes.

Do you pick a first year player that is in a team on the brink of a premiership? No. They don’t usually give first year players a chance.

I say “usually” because Collingwood threw this rule out last year!

Mitch Wallis would be in the best 22 of most AFL clubs, but the dogs have a great list, with a midfield this is already considered elite.  He might be lucky to get a game.  If he does, he is certainly worth the inclusion into my team.  If not, “Come back, Andrew Gaff” will be heard from my living room, all the way to Subiaco (or whatever its called this year).

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Midfielder #3 David Swallow, Gold Coast $160,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 533^rd player in the league

Swallow will be close to the most selected player in AFL dreamteam this year.

What does this mean? It means that you have to have him too.

He won’t win you any games by having him in your team, but you may lose a few by not having him.

Why? If (If!) your opponent has him in his team, your David Swallows will cancel each other out.

If you don’t have them and play another young midfielder instead (say Tom Liberatore), the expectation is that 99% of the time David Swallow will outscore any other rookie.  This means that the money you saved on the cheaper rookie may in fact become a loss as you weren’t able to nullify your opponents use of David Swallow.

The other scenario is you play an opponent without David Swallow.  In this case, they probably haven’t done much Dreamteam research and you were probably going to win anyway.

The big questions is do you keep for the year, or do you sell him when his price goes higher?

I don’t have the answer for this one yet.  See how he goes during the year, and then make a choice.  He might be the Barlow of last year – a cheap(ish) player that you keep as a starter for the whole season (until he did his knee of course).

So make sure you have Swallow in your team – even if its just to nullify everyone else.  For $160K, you don’t have anything to lose.  It’s almost a rule – pick pick 1 every season!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Midfielder #2 Andrew Gaff, West Coast $148,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 550^th player in the league.

Traded for Gold Coast’s Daniel Harris, Midfield $114,400

@Dreamteam_Guru 494^th player in the league

One of the first players picked by the Guru this year.

When picking first year players, it is important to pick players that will get lots of game time for the season.

One strategy is to focus on early draft picks.

Another strategy is to focus on players that play for teams that had a bad season the year before as they will be likely to get game time.

With Andrew Gaff both strategies are utilised, making him a good choice.

Gaff was taken at pick 4, and the Eagles were very glad that he slipped through to them.

The West Coast Eagles looked ordinary pretty much across the park last year.  I would expect Gaff to line up in the centre square for the first bounce come round one.  He is a player that West Coast will build a future around. Afterall, they did give him Judd’s old number.

$148K is a large amount to outlay for a first year player, nearly 50% more than Atley who I looked at yesterday.  In this case, I believe it’s money well spent. Guaranteed game time, will increase in value and you can then have the choice of upgrading him for someone else, or keeping him as a lock for the year.

A good choice for your midfield come round one.

So why the trade: Daniel Harris was great in the NAB cup, and is cheaper than Gaff.  I believe he will get more game time as well, as Harris isn’t just in the Gold Coast’s top 22 players, he is in their top 10.  Should have a monster year, and his price is so cheap, it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t.  Sorry, Gaff.

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Midfielder #1 – Shaun Atley, North Melbourne $96,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 583^rd player in the league

No one was more surprised that North Melbourne that this guy was still available when it came their turn in the draft last year.  They snapped him up, and I reckon Scott smiled to himself knowing that 2011 and beyond were looking good for the roos.

Consider this. Ziebell. Anthony. Cunnington.

Add Atley.

Now add another 5 years experience to these guys.

You’re looking at a good basis for a good future in the land of the roo.

But this isn’t about premiership success, this is about dreamteam.

Consider the prices of Ziebell, Anthony and Cunnington.  For their dollar value, you are better investing elsewhere this year.

But under $100K you can buy Atley who will be given plenty of time on the field this year.  Atley was rated as a top ten draft pick, but when a lot later than expected.  The good news for us, is that his price isn’t inflated (David Swallow like) for being an early draft pick.

As an investment player, he is a good choice.  If he has a good year, he might still be in your team come round 24.

He was one of the first picked by the Guru this year.  Has he found his way into your midfield?

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

23/2 @Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Defender #4 – Peter Faulks, Freo $97,600

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 671^st player in the league

One of the first picked players for the Guru this year.

Freo have been very good at recruiting recently.  We’ve all heard of Michael Barlow, but there has also been other great dreamteam crops coming out of Freo. Greg Broughton has also been good to us, and Matthew Pavlich is a name that’s been on our list for years.

Faulks was pre-selected by the Gold Coast, and Freo gained him as part of a trade.

He is a mature age first year player who is going to get a lot of game time for the Dockers.

There are positional holes with the loss of Tarrant at the Dockers, and Faulks will be the one to cover it.  Let’s hope he turns it into dreamteam points too!

He might not be on everyone’s radar – but he should be on yours!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Defender #3 – Sebastian Tape, Gold Coast $112,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 578^th player in the league

A little more outlay than the below $100K for the majority of first year players.

This means more experience, and more likely to get a game.

Tape has big wraps on him, and although there are other names you have heard of from the Gold Coast more frequently, I won’t be surprised if we here of this gun several times during the year.

No one is expecting the Gold Coast to threaten much this year.  This might mean that a considerable amount of ball is in their backline.  With Tape a certain starter in defence, he might have access to a lot of possessions.

At this price, I am hoping that he will stay with me for the season. However, form, injuries and value may not see him with the Guru’s come round 24. Hoping for a big season from the Tape!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Defender #2 – Shaun McKernan, Adelaide $97,600

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 504^th player in the league

The NAB cup is the reason that McKernan has found his place the Guru’s 33 man squad.

I was impressed by the way he played and thought that he looked likely to get plenty of game time this year.  With minimal outlay, it didn’t seem too risky to pick him up.

He is listed as a def/for, however I’m not picking him with this in mind.  I don’t have a def/for in my forwardline at present, which means that I won’t be able to use him as a forward. But I’m not intending to either.

At this price, I am looking at his value to increase for me.  If he is consistent, he may stay with the Gurus, but at this stage he is trade bait.  When his price doubles or triples, he will most likely get sold for another defender with more experience and reliability in the dreamteam stage.

I said the same about Ben Nason last year.  I still had him at round 22.

Let’s hope his early season form continues long into the year.  Welcome to the Gurus, McKernan!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Defender #1 – Josh Toy, Gold Coast $97,600

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 538^th player in the league.

Over one third of my squad is first year players.

Why? Because they are cheap to buy, increase in value and have the potential to make my squad a strong one.

Also, its the only way I can pay for the top players in my team. The money you save on a kid you can invest in a high profile, dreamteam lock.

And that’s why Josh Toy is in my squad.

A good strategy this year is load up of Gold Coast first year players.  They will all get game time, and you might unearth the next dreamteam star.

I am expecting Toy to get plenty of game time and increase in value quickly for me.

If his numbers remain strong for the season, he might end up staying in my team for the season.

If not, I will sell at the right time in order to pick up a gun player half way through the season.

There isn’t anything to lose by picking a player at this price range.  Come round 2, I am hoping that Bluey gives him the nod to run off half back.  If he does, the Guru’s will be happy!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru and his List – It’s coming!

Last year, I revealed my squad from 30-1 in the last 30 days before season kick off.

I am doing the same this year, but not in dollar value, but rather in sections, beginning tomorrow with cheap defenders.

This list will give you a guide on how to beat the Guru.  You will see my strategy and can either use it against me, or improve it for your own squad.

I’d prefer the second option.

However, like everyone else, I will change my squad so many times between now and the start of the season, it isn’t funny.  However, I won’t change it much.  I am happy with this squad, happy to share it and of course happy to hear what you think of it.

Have I considered players you are considering? Have I made some bad calls?  Have I taken a risk?  Can I win with the squad I have?

The squad was put together using both my formula and instinct. I hope its a winning combination.

So read tomorrow to see who pick 33 is!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru in Focus - Gold Coast's @GaryAblettJnr

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 1st player in the league

The AFL helped me from making the toughest Dreamteam choice of 2011. Swan or Ablett.  With the Gold Coast having 2 byes in the first 9 rounds, I believe the best strategy with Ablett for the season is to wait.

From round 1-9 Collingwood play each week. Swan doesn’t get injured and he doesn’t score low numbers. He is my set captain for the first 1/3 of the season.

After round 9, the Gold Coast have used up both byes for the season.  This is good for a few reasons.

Firstly, it means Ablett and co will be available for the remaining 14 rounds.

Secondly, Ablett’s value may have dropped by round 10. We can use a trade an upgrade a gun rookie to become Ablett for the remainder of the season.

Most importantly, we get a chance to see how Ablett will be utilised by the Suns.  Will he still get his 100+ points with a midfield that isn’t the Cats? Will they have an Ablett friendly game plan? Will he still be the Guru’s number 1 rated player in the game.

For these three reasons, I’m not having Ablett in my team from round one.  He is a very strong chance to be in my team from round 10 onwards.

Until then, it’s captain Swan in Guru land.

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru in Focus: Geelong’s @JamesPopsKelly

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 45th player in the league

Geelong have been Dreamteam Gold in recent years. Chapman, Bartel, Corey, Enright, Mackie and you-know-who have all been players we have used continuously over the DT journey.

This year could be the year to consider James Kelly.

He doesn’t have the profile of some of his peers, but he is rated by the Guru’s dreamteam formula as in the league’s top 50 players.  If no one else has him, his value to you increases as he is capable of winning you games.

Let’s look at the players around him.

42. Jason Gram (216)
43. Heath Scotland (214.667)
44. Andrew Carazzo (214)
45. James Kelly (214)
46. Andrew Mackie (213.667)
47. Jordan Lewis (213.667)
48. Brad Green (212)

The first three could all be used as well as Gibbs, Deledio, Goddard and Heppell to make a good mix of def/mids that you could use well over both positions to cover byes.  Scotland has the best 2010 out of the list, so he might be one to consider.

Interesting that Mackie and Kelly are so close on this list.  Kelly averaged 94 last year, which would see him as the best player in many clubs. 

Brad Green is an interesting forward option, but his age puts me off.  However, Melbourne aren’t effected by the bye, so worth considering!

Consider Kelly closely.  If his price fits in your range, why not?

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

Guru in Focus – Geelong’s Paul Chapman

@DreamteamGuru rated 4th player in the league

For those that have been studying these BLOGs, you would have noticed that Chapman has moved up in my rating system.

The reason is that I have decided that Dual Position Players are worth more.  Their positional flexibility (especially in a year containing a bye) makes these players gold.

Before I made this change, Chapman was 11^th on my list.  That’s how important a DPP is!!!

According to my formula, Chapman is the number one rated forward.  He averaged 114 last year, with a 3 year average of 106.333.  There is a feeling that it is risky to pick Chappy because of him hamstrings.  Last year I didn’t pick him for that reason.  Last year, I didn’t win my league either.

You need to take some measured risks to win Dreamteam.  Last year, I took the risk of not picking him.  This year, I won’t make the same mistake.

His three year average of games played (includes finals) is 21 games a season.  If your forward line has depth, or if you have another mid/for that you can swap him with and use a midfielder as cover, you should be able to cover the odd week where he is out injured.

According to my rating system, the top 5 forwards are

1.       Chapman (253.333|

2.       Alan Didak (249)

3.       Colin Sylvia (234)

4.       Lance Frankiln (230.333)

5.       Nick Riewoldt (229.667).

The top 3 are DPP (Mid/For).  If you have the cash, buy them all and have one as a mid.  That way you can yo-yo them between positions.

There are also a lot of cheap mid/for this year. Isaac Smith and Ian Callinan would be good to go with this trio to give you forward line and midfield line depth.

Colin Sylvia is also from Melbourne, meaning you won’t miss him in head-to-head competition when Melbourne have the bye!

Picking Chapman means picking a strategy, and I would suggest loading up on mid/for if you pick Chapman!

This BLOG is written by the @Dreamteam_Guru from twitter.  Send comments via through twitter to ensure they are read.

@Dreamteam_Guru in Focus - Adelaide's Patrick Dangerfield

@DreamteamGuru rated 289^th player in the league

This guys has been dubbed the next Gary Ablett. This means he won’t be the 289^th rated player for too long.

However, Robbie Gray was described a similar way 3 seasons ago, and he is 232^nd on my list (surround by Daniel Pratt and James Gwilt – not the company that Ablett keeps).

If Adelaide use Dangerfield well, he could become a top 100 player of mine by the start of next season.  So is this the year to jump on board?  The NAB cup is designed for us dreamteamers, and lets make sure we watch Dangerfield very closely.

Also, he has a very cool last name.  How can someone outscore you when you have a Dangerfield in your team?

Lets compare him to the players around him on the scale.

286. Rick Ladson (150.667)
287. Matt White (150)
288. Daniel Bradshaw (150)
289. Patrick Dangerfield (149.667)
290. Luke McPharlin (149.333)
291. Brendon Fevola (149.333)
292. Jarryd Morton (149).

Dangerfield averaged 67 last year, but his 3 year average is 48.6667.  He scored nearly 20 points above his average last year.  Expect his path to keep rising like this.

Out of the above players, he would be the only one I would consider.  Ladson can’t keep on the park or score in DT, I don’t know enough about Matt White, Daniel Bradshaw is too old, McPharlin being part of Freo is tempting (for bye reasons), but would never get a serious look, Fevola might not play at all this year and Morton is yet to cement a place at Hawthorn.

Dangerfield won’t find a place immediately in the Guru’s team, but he could be a good sneaky pick to consider.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in Focus - Geelong's Jimmy Bartel

Now we’re talking.

This time last year, Bartel was rated as the number one player in the league using the Guru’s formula. He averaged 105 last year, which saw him drop down to five here – but remember he played with an injured arm for half the season.  Was I the only one to suspect there was a cast on his arm, hence the long sleeves.

Good news – Ablett is gone. I Think Bartel will rise to the challenge of being Geelong’s premium midfielder.  I think he wants to prove that it wasn’t all Ablett, and Geelong can win a premiership without him.

Bartel with motivation is a dangerous mix.

Lets look at the players around him.

2. Dane Swan (268)
3. Brendon Goddard (254.333)
4. Matthew Boyd (253)
5. Jimmy Bartel (253)
6. Joel Selwood (249.667)
7. Leigh Montagna (249.333)
8. Michael Barlow (246).

OK. So everyone has Brendon Goddard. This means that he won’t win you a premiership. You have to have him, but he won’t win it for you.

Dane Swan is a good option. You could lock him in as captain and be very happy for the season. Averaged 123 last year. That’s an average of 246 if he is your captain.

Mathew Boyd and Leigh Montagna go under the radar compared to the other big names, but dreamteam researches will know that they are to be considered.

I’m not touching Barlow until his price drops. Too risky with that knee.

I think Bartel will have more damage than Selwood this year.  If I was looking at outlaying big on my second midfielder, these are the two I would be looking at.  Bartel would get the nod as I think he is on the hunt for a big year.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in Focus - Essendon's Mark Williams

Mark Williams - @DreamteamGuru rated 443rd player in the league

The big gun recruit to cover the loss of Mathew Lloyd & Scott Lucas didn’t live up to the hype of 2010.  But this could mean good Dreamteam value for this season.

$162,000 is a bargain price for who should be one of the elite forwards in the competition.  He won’t score heavily, but could give you some extra value that could be a decent investment when it comes time to sell.

As he is an Essendon player, he can’t win you a flag, but if you sell him at the right time you might be able to upgrade to a higher scoring player without too much outlay.

Consider closely.

Let’s compare him to the other players around him in the ranking system.

440. Nick Salter (116.333)
441. Aaron Cornelius (116)
442. Daniel Menzel (116)
443. Mark Williams (115.667)
444. Tyrone Vickery (115.5)
445. Jonathan  Griffin (115.333)
446. Ryan Gamble (115)

Gamble’s 3 year average is the heighest of the company, and given that St Kilda drafted him (for immediate success), you would have to think he is a good chance of game time. But Williams would nearly double the income of the players around him.  If this turns in to dreamteam value too, he could be a good pick up.

If one of my rookies isn’t lining up in round one, I will be drafting Williams in to replace. At his price, he feels like a rookie anyway.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Adelaide’s Scott Thompson

@DreamteamGuru rated 24^th player in the league

Quality choice for dreamteamers.  If you have the philosophy that you win dreamteamers by the picking the players that no one else has, Scott Thompson is a prized pick. No one outside of Adelaide really knows what he looks like, let alone rates his dreamteam stats.

He averaged 96 last year. His 3 year average is 97.666 and he averages 22 games a season. Super, reliable and durable quality.

Now if you hold my premise that no one knows him, lets look at the players around him and see how anonymous they are!

21. Lance Franklin (230.333)
22. Nick Riewoldt (229.667)
23. Sam Mitchell (228)
24. Scott Thompson (225.667)
25. Brett Deledio (223.333)
26. Joel Corey (223)
27. Aaron Sandilands (220.667)

See what I mean? Great company, and everyone else will be strongly considered for dreamteamers across the county.

Scott Thompson is a safe bet for your team, and as not many other people will have, he is your chance of winning the competition!

Consider him hard from round one.  Or upgrade a rookie during the season, especially if his price drops!

Buy low, sell high!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Essendon’s @AngusMonfries

@DreamteamGuru rated 151st player in the league

Essendon players are the biggest dreamteam headache of the year. No Essendon player will win you a premiership as they have a bye in round 24.

However, Essendon players can get you into a position to fight for the title, and if you have trades or bench players, having a couple of bombers in your side may be what you need to get into a dreamteam grand final.

Angus Monfries is one player that would be a good pick if you aren’t disregarding every black and red player. He is pushing up the ground more and more per season, he tackles lots and is capable of being a player that will score for you regularly.

Let’s look at the players around him on the list.

148. Ryan Hargrave (176)
149. Nick Malceski (176)
150. Heath Grundy (175)
151. Angus Monfries (174.667)
152. Jack Grimes (174.667)
153. Travis Varcoe (173.667)
154. Josh P Kennedy (Sydney) (173.333).

Interestingly, Josh J and Josh P Kennedy both have the same ranking score...but I digress.

Some very interesting players around Monfries.  Out of the three Sydney players, I would pick Grundy first.  I believe he will continue to improve, and I don’t trust Malceski’s ACL.  I think Josh P is too much of a risk at this stage. Remember, Sydney players are great this year as their byes won’t impact head to head competition.

Travis Varcoe might be on the improve now that there is room in the Geelong midfield (Gary who?), but I would want to base his selection after careful study during the NAB comp.

Jack Grimes is a quality pick.  Playing for Melbourne is great this year (bye situations), and his numbers are good for a defender.

Angus is in good company, and in a normal year, he might find a place into my starting line up.  I just can’t really justify the outlay for a player who can’t win be a grand final this year. Personally, I will only pick Essendon first year players, but not picking Monfries might come back to bite me.  Afterall, you do need to qualify for a grand final to win one.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Collingwood’s @DT_13

@DreamteamGuru rated 89^th player in the league

Dale Thomas had a big jump in last year’s dreamteam, and last year was the time to jump on.

Check out his last 3 years averages...

2008 – 73

2009 – 77

2010 – 95.

18 point rise, nearly 20% better last season.  He was taken pick 2 for a reason, and he is beginning to show it.

12 months ago, he asked Mick for more time in the midfield. However, he still plays like a forward, and should still be available as a forward this year.  That’s good news for us dreamteamers.

Let’s look at the players that are near him in my formula.

86. Clinton Jones (195.333)
87. Kieran Jack (195.333)
88. Darren Milburn (195.333)
89. Dale Thomas (194.6667)
90. Brady Rawlings (194.333)
91. Nathan Lovett-Murray (194)
92. Daniel Rich (194)

Plenty of value here, guys.

But first, who to ignore. Nathan Lovett-Murray plays for Essendon, and therefore won’t be available for the grand final. Pass.

Brady Rawlings is getting a bit too old for me – every game be plays in one closer to retirement. Pass.

Darren Milburn – a good DT player, but age is a factor now. Pass.

Clinton Jones – In a year where the bye is a factor, there are other Saints to look at first. Pass.

That leaves me with three.  Daniel Rich is the most durable player in the league. He hasn’t missed a game since his debut.  This means if you have him, you won’t need an emergency for him. That’s a big plus. Brisbane are also one of the teams that share both their byes, meaning his absence won’t affect Dreamteam fixtures.  He averages 76, but this is sure to spike. But will it be this year? I hope so – he is a big chance of being a Guru this year.

Kieran Jack – when I saw that the swans were to have the double bye affect this year, he was the first player to come to mind.  He went from averaging 62 in 2009 to averaging 90 last year. If its a choice between Jack and Rich, I’m going Jack this year.

Which leaves me with Thomas.  He will keep up his good form, but his position is a factor.  IF listed as a forward or a mid/for, he is in.  If he is a mid only, then I’m looking elsewhere.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Carlton’s @andycaraz44

 @DreamteamGuru rated 74th player in the league

In previous years, he has been everybody’s favourite defender/midfielder.  That is until Hodge and Goddard also became dual position players.  However, with the change of format last year allowing coaches to swing multi positional players around, and the upcoming bye this year makes these players a little more worthwhile.

Consider.  You have Goddard in defence and Carrazzo as a mid. You pick Heppell as a back up defender.  When St Kilda, Carlton or Essendon have a bye, you have the ability to swing the changes between these 3 players.  Multi positional players will be gold this year, but if Carrazzo is listed in 2 positions, is he still a good pick?

Lets look at the players around him.

71. Heath Scotland (199.667)
72. Sam Fisher (199.667)
73. Dayne Beams (199.5)
74. Andrew Carazzo (199)
75. Tom Scully (199)
76. Cameron Bruce (199)
77. Andrew Embly (198.667).

Scully and Carazzo stand out in this list to me.  Other might be contenders for a starting position, but the real value can be found with these 2.  Melbourne share their bye with clubs, making Scully a great choice.  Carlton have a bye in the last 4 rounds, meaning Carazzo would miss a potential final for your team.  But if you have other multi-positional talent, you should be able to cover him.  I’d go Carazzo first. Good choice as a defender.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Collingwood’s @SP_10

@DreamteamGuru rated 9th player in the league

Pendles = quality. And plenty of it. He averaged 107 last year, 9 points greater than the year before, and 10 points more than the year before that.  I still think he can improve, and if he does it on the same trajectory, he will average around 115 this year.  That puts him up there with the Montagna’s and Boyd’s potentially, while not necessarily costing that much.  This might depend on when you buy him.

Collingwood winning the flag isn’t a good thing for dreamteamers.  All their players have been in the spotlight (twice – 2 grand finals) meaning a lot of people have seen Pendles perform well and taken notice for this year’s dreamteam.

So to pick him or not?  Let’s compare the guys around him.

6. Joel Selwood (249.667)
7. Leigh Montagna (249.333)
8. Michael Barlow (246)
9. Scott Pendlebury (245.667)
10. Marc Murphy (240)
11. Paul Chapman (238.333)
12. Lenny Hayes (235.333)

I am passing on Joel this year.  I think he will be heavily tagged now that Ablett has moved to the Gold Coast.

I am also passing on Barlow.  He is overly priced considering the amount of games he played and I can’t trust his knee yet.

I may pick Chapman as a forward, but I am nervous about his hamstrings (every year I have these nerves).

Lenny Hayes is pretty old now, and I usually have a no 30+ policy.

That leaves me Montagna, Pendlebury and Murphy.  It’s close for me.  Looking at other factors then.

Carlton have their second bye in round 23 – Preliminary final week in dreamteam. This makes Murphy less desirable.

I think more coaches will have Pendlebury than Montagna, so to have a greater chance of winning, I would pick Montagna.  He averaged 112 last year, which is just fine by me.

Saying that, Pendles is an excellent choice.  Don’t let me put you off!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Collingwood’s @heathshaw39

@DreamteamGuru rated 79th player in the league

Shaw, Grundy & Scotland.  The Heaths were all worth looking at 2010.  But if I had to pick one in 2011 it would be Shaw.

His overall ranking sees him in the lower half of the first 100, however to put that in perspective the top 100 is dominated by midfielders.  The real value in dreamteam has to be with the forwards and defenders.

For one thing, you are forced to have one more defender and forward playing compared to your mids.

It is also harder for these positions to score higher than 100 (regularly) as they don’t travel with the ball.

Heath Shaw is a great option for your defence as he is reliable, and is a defender that can score for you (no offense, Presti.)

Watch this.

2010 average – 81
2009 average – 83
2008 average – 82

Consistent. And he is durable.  If you can 80+ points regularly from a defender, you would have to take that.

Lets see who else is around Heath Shaw according the formula.

76. Cameron Bruce (199)
77. Andrew Emberly (198.667)
78. Shaun Burgoyne (198.333)
79. Heath Shaw (198)
80. Jason Winderlich (197.333)
81. Patrick Ryder (197)
82. Paul Duffield (197)

So surrounding Shaw there are a lot of midfielders.  These ones may be cheaper in price, but for the price you are paying you are better off spending an extra $50K and buying someone from the top 100.

As in earlier editions of this BLOG, I am ruling out any Essendon players that I might need in round 24.  Love your work, Paddy – just not this year.

So who would I take out of Shaw and Duffield?  Good question.  Shaw is the reliable pick.  We know what we are going to get each week.  Between 75-85 points each week.

Duffield has average 88.5 over the last 2 years, but 3 years ago average only 64.  This is the reliability we know from Shaw, but I think that Duffield has the potential to throw up some large numbers.

So there is one more factor to consider.  The impact of the bye.  Fremantle players are better this season as their bye won’t impact on dreamteam games (they share both their byes with 2 other teams both times that they come up).  If its between Shaw and Duffield this year, I am going to have to choose Duffield.  Let’s face it, according to my ranking there is only 1 point difference, so the risk isn’t too big, is it?

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Carlton’s @kadesimpson6

@DreamteamGuru rated 29th player in the league

There has been a bit of a navy blue theme going through the dreamteam guru of late, but in Kade Simpson we find a worthy edition to the Parthenon’s of Dreamteam greatness. 

Here is why I like Kade Simpson.

According to my system he is in the top 30 players of the league.

While everybody is busy selecting Gibbs, Judd and Murphy my boy Simpson can slip under the radar.  This means he has a greater potential of winning you matches.  Look out round 24, you might have found a captain here!

Let’s have a look at the players that a near Simpson in the rankings to compare his worth to your dreamteam.

26. Joel Corey (223)
27. Aaron Sandilands (220.667)
28. Travis Boak (220.667)
29. Kade Simpson (220)
30. Jobe Watson (219.667)
31. Adam Cooney (219.667)
32.  Steve Johnson (219)

Interesting.  I would gladly have any of these players in my team in a normal year.

Joel Corey was top 5 this time last year.  Injury, average score and average games have pushed him down to the lower 20s.  But he will scoot right back up again, and should be under priced this year.

Sandilands.  Freo have the advantage of sharing their bye twice making Freo players worth more to the dreamteam coach, and he is a great ruckman for DT.  A must really. No brainer.

Travis Boak might be of the Kade Simpson mould.  Not too many coaches would have him in their team, but he is worth picking.

Jobe Watson.  Tough.  But if you have a bye in round 24, we don’t want you round here no more.

Adam Cooney doesn’t have the best DT reputation, but he is a solid performer.  If you spend your money wisely, he might be worth picking up if his price falls during the year.  Buy low, sell high!

Steve Johnson is the kind of forward I like.  I like smaller forwards because they will go and get the ball.  But he is too erratic for my dreamteam world.  A pass from me.

Kade Simpson is one I will be looking at very closely from before round 1. Although its hard to find your way into the Guru’s midfield!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus – Adelaide’s @ChrisLKnights

@DreamteamGuru rated 186th player in the league

A potential steal in this year’s dreamteam.  He played minimal in 2010 due to injury.  When he did play, his scores were lower than previous seasons – averaging 67 compared to 85 the season before and 83 the year before that.  With his price low, this is the time to pounce.

He is listed as a forward, but he doesn’t play like one.  He reminds me more of an old-fashioned wingman, and will score accordingly.

Let’s put Knights in perspective with the formula

183. David Hille (168)
184. Josh Hill (168)
185. Brent Macaffer (167.5)
186. Chris Knights (167.333)
187. Josh Drummond (167.333)
188. Richard Tambling (167.333)
189. Tom Rockliff (167)

It quite a log jam around this point in the formula.  Some value around here, however Knights is the less risky of all the risky.

Hille plays for Essendon and is older.  He won’t play in round 24 so can’t win you a grand final – pass.

Hill – Yet to cement his place at the doggies – pass.

Macaffer – I’d prefer Knights.

Drummond – Can’t stay on the park

Tambling – Big risk – how will he go this year?

Rockliff – Will improve, but not sure if this is the year to risk it.

If Knights has the season he should, he could jump 100 places in next year’s graph.  He will be one of my first picked this year.

Hopefully he won’t be one of my first injuries!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru in focus: Carlton’s @marcmurphy3

 @DreamteamGuru rated 10th player in the league.

Marc Murphy has been a good pick in dreamteam for a long time now. He averaged 100 last year, and in his last 3 seasons he has averaged 100.  Consistency win every time.

He isn’t a risky pick – with Murphy, you know what you are getting.

He has proved to be durable as well, averaging 22 games a season over the last 3 seasons.  You don’t want to burn trades in dream team, and Marc Murphy won’t make you.

Carlton are a team on the rise, and their mid-field guns should be a target for your dreamteam this year.

Marc Murphy will be on a lot of people’s radars this year, so he may end up being a defensive pick.  If everyone else has him, it makes it difficult for you to beat the opposition. However, he is potential captain material for your team, so well worth it – no matter what the price is.

Let’s put Murphy in perspective using my formula (discussed in earlier blogs.

7. Leigh Montagna (249.333)
8. Michael Barlow (246)
9. Scott Pendlebury (245.667)
10. Marc Murphy (240)
11. Paul Chapman (238.333)
12. Lenny Hayes (235.333)
13. Nick Dal Santo (234.333).

If price wasn’t an issue, I would pick Pendlebury first in this list.  However he would only pip Murphy by a whisker.  Worth comparing prices and when their teams have their byes before making a decision. 

Murphy is worthy of being in the top 10 dreamteamers in the comp. Durable, reliable gold!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

See the Bombers Fly Up (Just not in Dreamteam)

@Dreamteam_Guru looks at the challenges facing picking an Essendon player this year.

It had to happen in a 17 team competition.

One team has to have a bye in the last round.

The last round is Dreamteam Grand Finals, and if you think you are any chance of winning your competition this year, what are you going to do with your Essendon players.

In reality, this might not affect many players. Watson, Ryder and Stanton are the higher scoring players on their list, and Heppell will be a good rookie.  However, none of these players will win you a grand final.

If you pick any Bombers you need to ensure you have the trades or cover for these players when it comes to round 24.  A doughnut in a grand final is unacceptable.

If you think you are a chance of taking out the competition this year, think long and hard before picking a bomber.  I think I will only approach their first year players.  Win value, and burn them once their price is high!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

Go Lions! Go Demons! Go Swans! Go the Dockers!

The @Dreamteam_Guru looks at how 4 teams can help you win the league this year.

With the advent of the bye rounds this year, the AFL have changed their approach to fantasy football.  Instead of the first few rounds being non-match matches (as you waited until round 4 before you played anyone), this is now being substituted for rounds where multiple teams have byes.

There are six rounds this year where more than one team has a bye.  In these rounds, you won’t play against anyone.

Each team has 2 byes this year. However, 4 teams share their bye with 2 other teams on both occasions they have their bye.  This is great news for dreamteamers.

Brisbane – If you pick a Jonathon Brown, and he plays all of Brisbane’s 22 games for the year, he can line up for you every time you are playing opposition.  You won’t have to play a Jack darling in his place as when Brisbane have the bye, the round won’t count in head to head competition.

The same applies for Melbourne – this makes Sylvia, Trengove and Scully more appealing.

The youth of the dockers are also hot property, as well as their established stars.  Enter Pavlich into your team!

Sydney is the funny egg in this basket.  Sydney players traditionally don’t score that well in AFL dreamteam (Supercoach is more their game).  However, it might be worth taking a risk this year.  I decided when I saw the draw this year that Kieran Jack is my essential pick.  He is set for a big year, and I think he will be under priced for what he can do this year.

So if you are tossing up between a Brown and a Riewoldt, factor in when they have their byes.  This might tip you over into making a decision that can win you a flag this year!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.