@Dreamteam_Guru Value Forward #1 Andrew Krakouer

@DreamteamGuru rated 678th player in the league

I think he will be one of the most picked players this year, and you can understand why.  He has previous AFL experience, and has a super season in the WAFL.  Collingwood must of been laughing their heads off during trade week. Gaining Krakouer from the Gold Coast (he was pre-selected player) is quite a steal really. Considering Fraser couldn’t fit into the Collingwood side, I think they did quite well.

Yet according to my formula he is dead last.

His age and original draft position have hurt him in my formula. As he hasn’t played a game at the top level in the last 3 years (not since 2007), he doesn’t have an average score for the last 3 years, and his average games played is therefore zero too.

His total score... -3.

However, he is going to be first picked for me this season!

Funnily enough, Ablett (who is at the top of my list) won’t make it into the Guru’s side. So I’m only using the formula as a guide too!

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@Dreamteam_Guru Value Ruck #2 Josh Fraser, Gold Coast $228,400

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 314^th player in the league

A very good choice in this year’s DT is Josh Fraser.

He didn’t play much last year for Collingwood which has seen his value drop.

The good thing about this, is that he wasn’t missing due to injury.  He simply wasn’t being picked to play.

So although I have picked Petrie (which is a risk due to him breaking a foot every other week last year), Josh Fraser has still proved to be durable.

Now let’s add to this the fact that he is playing for the Gold Coast now.  He is guaranteed game time.  He is a super important player for them.  Someone they can build a midfield around, and someone to assist the young ruckman they have on their list.

This can all turn into dreamteam value for us couch-coaches.

When I saw him listed at $228K, I thanked the guys at Champion Data.  Afterall, he is going to get game time, and he isn’t going to drop in value. Easy decision this year.

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@Dreamteam_Guru Value Ruck #1 Drew Petrie, North Melbourne $209,700

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 224^th player

Petrie has tried valiantly for me not to pick him.

He broke three feet last year (true!), and is now suspended for round 1.

Why have I picked him?

Firstly, value.  He will go up $100K easy this year.

Secondly, reputation.  In my rankings last year, I had him sitting as the third best ruckman in the league behind Sandilands and Cox.  Now he is rated as the 15^th best ruckman. Context: Brogan and Bradley are ahead of him (according to my scale).

I don’t think many people would agree with that.

I am expecting Petrie to return strong and want to make up for such a bad 2010 season.  This could be a potential blessing for dreamteamers.

The other plus is that he has played preseason games. The roos wouldn’t have risked him if they thought his feet couldn’t stand it (sorry – pad Guru puns coming out here).

Given that he is only missing round 1, I have had to pick 2 ruckman that will be playing round one.  This has compromised my Gold Coast strategy slightly, but I’m okay with that!

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@Dreamteam_Guru Value Midfielder #1 Dustin Martin, Richmond $298,800

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 135^th player in the league

Traded for Gold Coast’s Charlie Dixon, Forward $97,600

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 572^nd player in the league

Weird trade, eh?  With my mid/for strategy I was able to move a mid/for from my mids to my forwards, and then in effect trade a midfield for a forward.

Why did I do the trade? I wanted to free up some money so I could spend more on the second ruck.  In the end, that money has gone to my defence to pick up Broughton (discussed yesterday).

I liked Dustin Martin’s price - $298K for a player that will play 22 rounds this year and score well yet not be on everyone else’s team seemed like a good pick.

However, it does break one of the Guru’s golden rules: Never Pick a Second Year Player.  They are inevitably over priced and decrease in value during the season. Also, they find it hard to live up to their first year when they now get extra attention.

Sorry, Dustin – you had to go.

Dixon impressed me in the games against GWS and Sydney.  He looked to be in the Gold Coast’s best 22 which means lots of game time, and a lot of potential to increase in value.

Welcome to the Guru’s, Charlie!

I’m not expecting him to get much game time for me however.  He will be a fixtire on my bench, and will be cover for bye rounds.  But with my use of dual positions in my forward line, there should be better cover in most weeks for me.  This means that I am only looking for value out of Dixon, and I might upgrade him for another gun forward later in the season.

So I am now challenging Dixon to make me keep him!!!

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@Dreamteam_Guru Value Defender #1 Jeremy Laidler, Carlton $177,300

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 433^rd player in the league

Traded for Freo’s Greg Broughton $371,000

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 55th player in the league

When outlaying $177K for a player the only thing you are looking for is value.

That is why I am picking Laidler.

It is always a good thing to pick up recycled players.  He has been traded for a reason.  For an opportunity at Carlton.

Given that you have to pick one more defender and forward in your team (as opposed to midfielders), its a good move to use this pick to look for value.

Consider: Why did Carlton pick him up?

It can be to play in the reserves as he has been for Geelong for the last few seasons.  It has to be to get Carlton in a position to not just qualify for the finals, but start winning them too.

What does this mean for dreamteamers?  If Carlton have faith in him (as they should – they did trade for him), he should get plenty of game time.  He will then increase in value for sure.  $177K isn’t that much compared to players with lesser experience.  Expect him to increase $100K in no time.

Let’s compare him to other players around him in my ranking.

430. Rohan Bail (121)
431. Cameron Hitchcock (121)
432. Tyson Goldsack (120.667)
433. Jeremy Laidler (120.5)
434. Shaun Hampson (120.333)
435. Mark Nicoski (120)
436. Daniel Merrett (120)

All the other players in this region are more established players.  Yet they aren’t serious dreamteamers.  Laider has only played a handful of games and yet is in the same spot in the list.  With more game time, he can only go up in my ranking scale.

So why the trade?

I freed up some money changing Mumford for Robert Warnock.  He had just kicked 3 goals for Carlton in a half of footy (against GWS), but with Kruezer coming off a knee injury he should get some game time.

This left me with $200K in the bank, where I Could upgrade Laidler without burning a trade.

Broughton plays for Freo, meaning I won’t lose head-to-head competition when Freo has a bye.  He is also nearly 400 places higher in my scale, meaning plenty more dreamteam points for my team.  Lets look at the players around him on my list.

52. Dom Cassissi (210.333)
53. Liam Anthony (209)
54. Ryan O’keefe (207.333)
55. Greg Broughton (206.5)
56. Travis Cloke (206)
57. Jarrad Waite (205.667)
58. Shane Tuck (205.667)

He is mixing it in esteemed midfield company here.  Defenders that can score like mids are hard to find.  Broughton averaged 88 in his first season and improved to 89 last year.  If he stays where he is I’ll be happy. If he improves, I’ll be ecstatic!

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@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Forward #3 Isaac Smith, Hawthorn $92,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 524^th player in the league

The league was a-buzz on draft day.  Isaac Smith will be the next Michael Barlow.  The question is, where would he go in the draft.

Hawthorn used their first pick to get him. I bet they were surprised he lasted that long in the draft.

Listed as a Mid/For, he is a good player to select to make use of his Dual Position ability.  Let’s say you pick Colin Sylvia as a Midfielder and have Isaac Smith, Matthew Pavlich and Alan Didak in your forward line up, you can use them all to cover byes that occur during the season.

And lets not forget that Sylvia and Pavlich won’t lose you any games when they have their bye too!

Smith is a value pick.  As such, you pick him for his price to increase.  This is certain to happen.

The hawks picked him up as they see him as a key weapon in having a tilt at a premiership this year.  It’s also why they went for Cameron Bruce in the off season too.

Lock him in.

The choice will then be to sell him when his price increases or to keep him for the season.  Always a tough choice with rookies.  Give him a go and see what he does!

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@Dreamteam_Guru Cheap Forward #2 Jack Darling, West Coast $92,500

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 631^st player in the league.

A year before last year’s draft, Darling was looking at being a top 5 pick.  That probably meant the Gold Coast.

He had some behavioural issues last year which may have put some potential recruiters off.  He slipped to West Coast’s second selection in the draft.

However, don’t let this put you off recruiting him yourself!

He has the Champion Data record for most DT points in a game – over 300.  Imagine if he was your captain to boot!

At $92K, there isn’t much risk in picking him.  As a rookie, he will get game time as he is playing for the Eagles who have been struggling for quality players since losing Judd, Cousins, and can anyone remember Daniel Kerr?

First year players are a must in DT, and always look for ones that are certain of getting game time.

Darling is one of those players.

I am hoping he will be a Darling for the Guru’s this year, and maybe in future years when we can’t pick St. Nick, Pav and Brown anymore....

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