@Dreamteam_Guru’s 45th ranked player – St Kilda’s Farren Ray.

Surprised?  I am.

Here is the epitome of unique picks.  In a much vaunted midfield, this guy doesn’t have the best job security.  If it wasn’t for Zak Dawson departing, this guy might not have been offered a contract.

With a new coach, it will be interesting to see how Ray is used.  For me, he has green vest written all over him.

One reason why he has scored high in my rankings is his durability.  Averaging over 23 games a season over the last 3 (remember, the saints have played finals a lot), and averaging 82 points.  Last season he averaged 74, so this is either a sign of a point scoring slide or that he underperformed and therefore is underpriced this year.

Let me know if you pick him.  Here is my early tip though – I won’t be.

@Dreamteam_Guru’s 46th ranked player – Gold Coast’s Michael Rischitelli

This guy could be a great choice as a unique pick for your dreamteam.  It is testament to his work ethic that despite being in a poor team last year, that his numbers are still good.

In fact, last season his numbers were 8 points above his dreamteam average.  This is great news.  As his team gets better (as surely they must), his points will grow too.

Unfortunate thing about a list like this is that it tends to be midfield heavy.  It is a good strategy to have a couple of unique picks, which might make Rischitelli a good pick this season.  Track him in the NAB cup.

@Dreamteam_Guru’s 47th ranked player – Geelong’s Joel Corey

2 years ago, Corey was in the top 10.  His numbers have been consistent, but not the numbers we would want anymore.  If his last 2 seasons are anything to go by, I would have to pass and invest the money elsewhere.

You have to factor in age too.  He is one of the older players on the Cats list, and perhaps this could lead to a change in role – this wouldn’t be a good thing dreamteam wise.

His 3 year average is pretty good – in the high 90s.  However, this is more of a testament to 3 seasons ago when he averaged 107.  Last year he averaged 92.  That’s a big dip.

The only reason I would pick him is as a unique pick.  I don’t see many other people picking him, so maybe he could be a way of winning your league.

@Dreamteam_Guru’s 48th ranked player – Brisbane’s Simon Black

I can’t pick this guy – even if he is in my top 50.  Too old, and I can’t see the Brisbane game being focused around him as it once was.  With the Brisbane game play seemingly to revolve around players whose last name begins with R, Blackie will get a miss from me.

He shares the average height of the top 50 – 186cm.

His 3 year average 0f 91 at 21 games a season can’t be ignored, and if he was 5 years younger he would be considered.  For his price though, I can see better options out there.

@Dreamteam_Guru’s 49th ranked player – Geelong’s Andrew Mackie

One of the premium defenders in the dreamteam game.  I like the way he plays, and have picked him several times before. 

He shares one characteristic with the averages of the others in the top 50 – he is 27 years old which is the average age of this list.  This could mean that he is about to have the ripest season to date.

His price may also be a little lower than where it will be by seasons end – his score last season was 4 points lower than his 3 year average.  This could lead to an underpriced pick.

A factor against – he shares the bye not only with 5 other teams, but with the rest of the Geelong team.  If you want to stack your team with Geelong’s (proven) DT quality, then you have to be very careful this season of who you pick and it what season.

He has proven to be a durable pick, averaging 22 games a season for the last 3 years.

His 3 year average of 83 is very good for a defender.  He will come under Guru calculation again this year.

@Dreamteam_Guru's Top 50

The Guru has been at it all day.  Since the prospectus arrived a couple of days ago, I have been adding all the data into my precious spreadsheet.  All players are now ranked, and I am going to reveal the top 50 - one player at a time, one day at a time.  The player who came in at 50th place is GWS' Luke Power.

Luke Power has been on the slide in recent years.  Age has caught up to him, and he isn't the little Lukey Power of a decade ago.  A seasoned player now, who will be assistant coaching (I mean playing) for GWS this year.

He can be selected a mid/fwd this year, which will make him more popular than last season, but I would still find it hard to pick him.  I can't see Sheedy playing him for all 22 rounds.  When picking a DT squad, one factor I am looking for is durability, and although he can prove this (averaging 21 games a season over the last 3 years), I don't see him as a big part of Sheedy's plans.

Power's last season was 9 points lower than his 3 year average.  His scores are on the way down.

Another factor - can you see the ball going into the GWS forward half much this year?  I don't think I will have any GWS forwards this seasons.

Although Luke is in my top 50, he will find it hard to find a place in the Guru's 22.

2012 - It Begins

@Dreamteam_Guru has started doing what he likes doing best - his spreadsheet for picking his team for the season.

My AFL prospectus arrived in the post yesterday. I was cheering before I opened it. @Mrs_DT_Guru asked "what is it?" As I told her the answer her expression changed to that look. The one that says "I've lost my hubby until the end of September.

At the moment, I am going over the data & putting into a sheet. I have already imputed data for Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton & Collingwood. Once I have gone through all 18 teams, it will be time to work out the ultimate formula. After applying it to all, I will then be able to pick purely on stats who I deem to be the best players.

I'm also looking at future proofing the sheet. The main problem previously is this method picks the best team for last year. I'm looking at making these stats show players on the rise. Maybe then I won't make previous errors. Corey over Redden/Rockliff. Didak over Fyfe.

Big days of stats ahead - I'll keep you posted!

This blog has been written by the @Dreamteam_Guru - follow on Twitter. To ensure comments are read, please send via Twitter.