Season 2011 - Preperations are A-Happenin' Part II

@Dreamteam_Guru has finished inputting his statistics, and I have worked out who I deem to be the top 10 fantasy players for AFL dreamteam this year. This BLOG has been up on the @DTTALK site for a while now, so I apologise if you have already read it!

Dreamteam is a game of stats.  So armed with a fresh copy of the AFL prospectus, I designed a formula to work out who are the top 10 players to consider this year.

Firstly I needed a formula. I decided on...

Last Year’s average score + 3 Year Average Score + Draft Position + Average games in the last 3 years + age = magic number.

Now to give draft position a useable number, I did the following

Picks 1-10/Father Son = 10 points
Picks 11-20/Rookie Elevation = 5 points
Picks 21-50 = 2 Points
Picks 51+ = 0 points

I also did something similar with age
Age 18-20 = 10 points
21-24 = 8 points
25-28 = 5 points
29+ = -5 points

So picking a player at random with this formula, Andrew Swallow of North Melbourne, we do the following:

Last Year’s score (99) + 3 year Average Score (80) + Draft Position (2) + Average games in the last 3 years (15.6) + Age (8) = 204.667.

Thanks to Excel, I was able to do this with every player.

Now let’s have a look at who are the top 10 players...

10. Marc Murphy of Carlton with a score of 240. Averaging 100 over his last 3 years, being a top 10 draft pick (number 1 in fact), as well as being highly durable makes him an excellent choice.

9. Scott Pendlebury of Collingwood with a score of 245.667. Last year’s average score of 107 helps push Pendles above many.  Its hard not to like this bloke – even with him wearing black and white...

8. Michael Barlow of Fremantle with a score of 246. Averages 110.  However, I think he will be overly priced this year, and I can’t pick him with his leg at present.  Will watch his price drop before I jump on.

7. Leigh Montagna of St Kilda with a score of 249.333. Great player to pick, as he is left off a lot of players radar.  Out of the bottom half of my top ten, he is one I will be considering big time!

6. Joel Selwood of Geelong with a score of 249.667. With Gary leaving, his score will either increase due to his position being more vital, or it will decrease with the extra attention.  Not 100% sure on Joel for season ’11.

Equal 4^th .Jimmy Bartel of Geelong with a score of 253. I think Jimmy will flourish without the presence of Gary.  Bartel was first in the rankings last year, and “only” averaging 105 last year hurt him compared to the top 3.

Equal 4^th. Matthew Boyd of Western Bulldogs with a score of 253. A bit like Montagna, he can be a good player to have because no one else will have him.

3. Brendon Godard of St Kilda with a score of 254.33. The only non-mid fielder on this list makes him a lock for sure.  Only problem is, everyone else will have him.

2. Dane Swan of Collingwood with a score of 268. When I started this project, I was sure he would turn out to be number one. If I hadn’t of rated Father/Son selection so high, he would have been.  Needs to be picked this year.  Unlike Gary, I won’t be waiting on his price to drop.

1. Gary Ablett of Gold Coast with a score of 273. Only player to be in the 270s, and over 30 points higher than Marc Murphy in tenth place. Says it all really.  With Ablett not available to dreamteamers in rounds 1 and 9, I am hoping for a price drop in his first 7 games before jumping on in round 10.  That’s my plan at this stage!

Follow @Dreamteam_Guru on twitter for more insight from the guru.

First Year Players - Ian Callinan

@Dreamteam_Guru’s final look at first year players is for one of his favourite of the 2011 crop. But he is a risk as he is only on the club’s rookie list. Adelaide’s Ian Callinan.

He’s 28 and has been on every scout’s radar since he was 16. The reason he wasn’t picked is his height (or lack of it).  He has been forced to play (very well) for Tasmania in the VFL competition and then Central Districts in the SANFL.  Where he has played, he has brought success.

He will be a forward in this year’s competition, so look at him as this year’s J-Pod.  On the rookie list, but has been picked for a reason.

Rest assured, if he is elevated onto the seniour list, he will play. And although he is listed as a forward, don’t be surprised to see him in the centre square helping out with the mids.

Elite by foot and can read the game very well.  If you are looking for a very cheap option for your forward line, do not ignore Callinan.

Watch Adelaide closely in the NAB cup to see how they utilise him.  If you like what you see, pick him.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Andrew Gaff

@Dreamteam_Guru has been looking at first year players for the last week and a bit, and is continuing today with a look at West Coast recruit, Andrew Gaff.

Gaff is the second Eagle looked at here, and a good reason for that is how poor they have been over recent years.  Grand final years and the West Coast/Sydney dominance of the league seem like eons ago.

A team rebuilding is a team that players youth, and this is where value for dreamteamers lies.  Gaff was picked at pick four in the draft last year, and word had it that West Coast were surprised that he fell in their laps.  I expect him to line up round one for the Eagles.

You can also expect him to line up Round 1 for the Gurus.

This kid has class written all over him.  This year you will pick for value.  In five years time, you will pick him because he one of the better players in the competition. 

I am looking forward to seeing how his career plays out.

Hopefully we will make the Gold Coast regret taking Bennell or Day ahead of him and give us dreamteamers no regrets at all!

With this high praise comes one bad factor. Like David Swallow, most serious dreamteamers will have Gaff in their team.  So like the Swallow situation, Gaff is unlikely to win you a game, but rather negate the effect that he has for your opposition.  Dreamteam does require players like these to get through, so don’t let his popularity put you off.  I won’t be.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Dyson Heppell

@Dreamteam_Guru has been focusing on first year players, and today has a look at Dyson Heppell, Essendon’s first pick in the national draft late last year.

Rumour has it that Heppell will be a multi-positional player, and with the potential for dreamteam struggle this year due to the bye (every week!), multi-positional players will become more valuable.  If you pick Heppell in defence with Carrazzo and have Goddard in your midfield, you will be able to swing the three players between the three positions depending on what is happening with the bye that week.

This would have Heppell covering Carazzo and Goddard in weeks when they aren’t playing, and after researching Heppell – he should be a pretty good sub for you.

Also consider how badly Essendon have performed in recent years.  I think Heppell is guaranteed a start and should get plenty of time for the Bombers this season.

Important to consider with any Essendon player is that they won’t be available in Grand Final week of dreamteam.  Essendon have the bye in round 24.  So Heppell may help you make the Grand Final, but he won’t win it for you.  Pick him, but you are guanrteeing buring a trade late in the season.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Jack Darling

@Dreamteam_Guru is now focusing on first year forwards.  Are you also going to pick Jack Darling?

Jack Darling. It’s a nice name.  Jack is a powerful name, and Darling has all the endearing qualities you want in your dreams.  Jack Darling will be a powerful player for your dreamteam in 2011.

He was taken at pick 26 by West Coast, which is an absolute steal. 12 months ago, people were talking about him going in the top 5.  Some injuries and off-field incidents have pushed him down the order, but you should still consider him.

He is staying in his home state.  That has to be good for his development as a player and as a man.  He will be settled into his new AFL lifestyle quickly.

He is at an underachieving club.  This is good news for Dreamteamers.  He will play games without having to fight for his place.  Wosha will be forced to play kids, and Darling will be one of the first pick.

Finally he is a forward.  It is usually easy to find first year midfielders, but it can be hard to find cheap defenders, forwards and rucks.  Jack Darling is one of two forwards (the other being Sam Day) that I see as logical choices this year.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Maverick Wellar

@Dreamteam_Guru continues to look at first year players in the hope of unearthing a bargain player.  Today’s player is Maverick Wellar of the Gold Coast.

I was considering long and hard if I should write a piece on this Tasmanian import. 

I mean, ideally I want to win my dreamteam league this year, and if I don’t mention him, he might go under your radar and I have a bigger chance of winning the league.

But what would be even better is if you can use some of my advice, tweak it to your needs and beat me.  So I reveal the following.  Pick Maverick Wellar.

Wellar wasn’t drafted – he was pre-selected by the Gold Coast.  As such, he won’t be on many people’s radars.  His name wasn’t read out on draft day, but if it was I can guarantee that he would have gone in the top ten of the draft!

The other  positive about Wellar is that he was just placed into the leadership group of the Gold Coast.  To put this into perspective, David Swallow isn’t in the leadership group.  If the Gold Coast have this player lined up as a future captain of the club, that is great dreamteam news for us. Why? Because they will play him every single week.

Pick him when his price as low, sell him when his price is high, or consider keeping him for the season.

I hope I don’t regret writing this one!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - David Swallow

The @Dreamteam_Guru continues to look at first year players with today’s focus on Gold Coast recruit, David Swallow.

First round draft pick.  Not only that, but pick one.  It’s a dreamteam rule, really – pick the player that was taken first in the draft.  There are 2 main reasons for doing this.

Firstly – he has to be pick one for a reason.  He is the best first year player in the competition, therefore you need him in your team.

Secondly – everyone else will have him, and they will purchase him at the cheapest price that he will be all season – before round one.

David Swallow won’t win you any games this season. Odds are the opponent you are playing will have him on their team as well.  The reason to have him is to nullify the impact your opponent can have with him. If David Swallow scores 94 points, he will do it for you and he will do it for your opposition.  If he scores 3 points, he will do it for you and your opposition.

But you have to have him.  Odds are he will average over 80 for the season, and if you don’t have him, you will need another player that averages similar (or higher) at a cheap price so your opposition doesn’t beat you.

To win Dreamteam, you must select players that your opponent doesn’t have.  But in some cases, you need to pick the player that everyone else has so he doesn’t hurt you.  That’s why so many people pick Gary Ablett year after year, and why everyone will jump on Dane Swan this year.

Pick Swallow, but you must look elsewhere for a player that will win you games.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.