@Dreamteam_Guru Money Isn’t an Issue Forward – Paul Chapman Geelong, $472,200

Guru rated 4^th player in the league

Year upon year I find it hard weather to pick Chapman or not.  He is prolific forward option, however how much can we trust those hamstrings? 

2008: I picked him.  I regretted picking him. Hamstring = twang
2009: I picked him.  I regretted picking him. Hamstring = twang
2010: I didn’t pick him. I didn’t make the grand final. Hamstring = tick

You can’t win dreamteam without taking a few risks along the way.  This year, I have decided to keep the faith, but the worry behind me and pick him.

And even though his hamstrings don’t usually get him through the season, he is still averaging over 20 games a season in the last 3 years.  That’s pretty good.  Perhaps this year with the use of the bye, Geelong will be able to nurse him better during the season.

Here is why he is worth the risk.

2008: 93
2009: 112
2010: 114

Good numbers for a midfielder.  Great numbers for a forward and makes him well worth the risk.

Let’s compare him to the other top 5 forwards in the competition according to my rankings.

4. Paul Chapman (253.333)
9. Alan Didak (249)
17. Colin Sylvia (234)
23. Lance Franklin (230.333)
24. Nick Riewoldt (229.667)

I have managed to squeeze two of these in with the salary cap, and I have the sixth best forward in Matthew Pavlich too.  The thing about picking Chapman is the amount you have to outlay to be able to pay for him.  A less risky bet would be to pick Didak or Sylvia ahead of him.

Initially I did have Didak ahead of Chapman.  But I looked at Chapman’s numbers and decided he needed selection. Didak is averaging 99 over the last 3 years, but Chapman is averaging 106.333 in that time.   I see Chapman as a good Captain material too (like Goddard yesterday), where as I wouldn’t be confident in selecting Didak as a captain.  I also didn’t want to many Collingwood players in my team as they are affected by the bye.

This left a choice between Sylvia and Chapman. We know that I did trade Sylvia out earlier, which pained me to do.  Although Sylvia is a top 20 player, he averaged 18 points less than Chapman last year.  That’s significant, and I felt that my forward line was a weak point (certainly is compared to my defence).  I need someone there to lead my forward line, and Chapman is a good choice. 

Chapman (and Geelong) have a bye during dreamteam finals.  This is a big negative considering the amount we have to outlay for him.  However, if I finish top 4, and if I win my first final (two big ifs!), the bye won’t affect me as I myself will have bye that week.

Big risk, but as I said earlier, dreamteam can’t be one without risk.

So have I convinced you to pick him, or turned you off him completely?

Update**** I have traded Chapman out.  Late mail coming out of Geelong is that Chapman will be struggling for round one.  I am hoping this makes his value drop (if he does play) so I can pick him up later on.  If he is under an ijury cloud, he might be used as a sub, which is a dreamteam killer for a guy cosing me $472K.  I have re-selected Colin Sylvia (discussed in earlier BLOG). With the money I saved, I upgraded Charlie Dixon for Jeff Galett.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.