Season 2011 - Preperations are A-Happenin' Part II

@Dreamteam_Guru has finished inputting his statistics, and I have worked out who I deem to be the top 10 fantasy players for AFL dreamteam this year. This BLOG has been up on the @DTTALK site for a while now, so I apologise if you have already read it!

Dreamteam is a game of stats.  So armed with a fresh copy of the AFL prospectus, I designed a formula to work out who are the top 10 players to consider this year.

Firstly I needed a formula. I decided on...

Last Year’s average score + 3 Year Average Score + Draft Position + Average games in the last 3 years + age = magic number.

Now to give draft position a useable number, I did the following

Picks 1-10/Father Son = 10 points
Picks 11-20/Rookie Elevation = 5 points
Picks 21-50 = 2 Points
Picks 51+ = 0 points

I also did something similar with age
Age 18-20 = 10 points
21-24 = 8 points
25-28 = 5 points
29+ = -5 points

So picking a player at random with this formula, Andrew Swallow of North Melbourne, we do the following:

Last Year’s score (99) + 3 year Average Score (80) + Draft Position (2) + Average games in the last 3 years (15.6) + Age (8) = 204.667.

Thanks to Excel, I was able to do this with every player.

Now let’s have a look at who are the top 10 players...

10. Marc Murphy of Carlton with a score of 240. Averaging 100 over his last 3 years, being a top 10 draft pick (number 1 in fact), as well as being highly durable makes him an excellent choice.

9. Scott Pendlebury of Collingwood with a score of 245.667. Last year’s average score of 107 helps push Pendles above many.  Its hard not to like this bloke – even with him wearing black and white...

8. Michael Barlow of Fremantle with a score of 246. Averages 110.  However, I think he will be overly priced this year, and I can’t pick him with his leg at present.  Will watch his price drop before I jump on.

7. Leigh Montagna of St Kilda with a score of 249.333. Great player to pick, as he is left off a lot of players radar.  Out of the bottom half of my top ten, he is one I will be considering big time!

6. Joel Selwood of Geelong with a score of 249.667. With Gary leaving, his score will either increase due to his position being more vital, or it will decrease with the extra attention.  Not 100% sure on Joel for season ’11.

Equal 4^th .Jimmy Bartel of Geelong with a score of 253. I think Jimmy will flourish without the presence of Gary.  Bartel was first in the rankings last year, and “only” averaging 105 last year hurt him compared to the top 3.

Equal 4^th. Matthew Boyd of Western Bulldogs with a score of 253. A bit like Montagna, he can be a good player to have because no one else will have him.

3. Brendon Godard of St Kilda with a score of 254.33. The only non-mid fielder on this list makes him a lock for sure.  Only problem is, everyone else will have him.

2. Dane Swan of Collingwood with a score of 268. When I started this project, I was sure he would turn out to be number one. If I hadn’t of rated Father/Son selection so high, he would have been.  Needs to be picked this year.  Unlike Gary, I won’t be waiting on his price to drop.

1. Gary Ablett of Gold Coast with a score of 273. Only player to be in the 270s, and over 30 points higher than Marc Murphy in tenth place. Says it all really.  With Ablett not available to dreamteamers in rounds 1 and 9, I am hoping for a price drop in his first 7 games before jumping on in round 10.  That’s my plan at this stage!

Follow @Dreamteam_Guru on twitter for more insight from the guru.

First Year Players - Ian Callinan

@Dreamteam_Guru’s final look at first year players is for one of his favourite of the 2011 crop. But he is a risk as he is only on the club’s rookie list. Adelaide’s Ian Callinan.

He’s 28 and has been on every scout’s radar since he was 16. The reason he wasn’t picked is his height (or lack of it).  He has been forced to play (very well) for Tasmania in the VFL competition and then Central Districts in the SANFL.  Where he has played, he has brought success.

He will be a forward in this year’s competition, so look at him as this year’s J-Pod.  On the rookie list, but has been picked for a reason.

Rest assured, if he is elevated onto the seniour list, he will play. And although he is listed as a forward, don’t be surprised to see him in the centre square helping out with the mids.

Elite by foot and can read the game very well.  If you are looking for a very cheap option for your forward line, do not ignore Callinan.

Watch Adelaide closely in the NAB cup to see how they utilise him.  If you like what you see, pick him.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Andrew Gaff

@Dreamteam_Guru has been looking at first year players for the last week and a bit, and is continuing today with a look at West Coast recruit, Andrew Gaff.

Gaff is the second Eagle looked at here, and a good reason for that is how poor they have been over recent years.  Grand final years and the West Coast/Sydney dominance of the league seem like eons ago.

A team rebuilding is a team that players youth, and this is where value for dreamteamers lies.  Gaff was picked at pick four in the draft last year, and word had it that West Coast were surprised that he fell in their laps.  I expect him to line up round one for the Eagles.

You can also expect him to line up Round 1 for the Gurus.

This kid has class written all over him.  This year you will pick for value.  In five years time, you will pick him because he one of the better players in the competition. 

I am looking forward to seeing how his career plays out.

Hopefully we will make the Gold Coast regret taking Bennell or Day ahead of him and give us dreamteamers no regrets at all!

With this high praise comes one bad factor. Like David Swallow, most serious dreamteamers will have Gaff in their team.  So like the Swallow situation, Gaff is unlikely to win you a game, but rather negate the effect that he has for your opposition.  Dreamteam does require players like these to get through, so don’t let his popularity put you off.  I won’t be.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Dyson Heppell

@Dreamteam_Guru has been focusing on first year players, and today has a look at Dyson Heppell, Essendon’s first pick in the national draft late last year.

Rumour has it that Heppell will be a multi-positional player, and with the potential for dreamteam struggle this year due to the bye (every week!), multi-positional players will become more valuable.  If you pick Heppell in defence with Carrazzo and have Goddard in your midfield, you will be able to swing the three players between the three positions depending on what is happening with the bye that week.

This would have Heppell covering Carazzo and Goddard in weeks when they aren’t playing, and after researching Heppell – he should be a pretty good sub for you.

Also consider how badly Essendon have performed in recent years.  I think Heppell is guaranteed a start and should get plenty of time for the Bombers this season.

Important to consider with any Essendon player is that they won’t be available in Grand Final week of dreamteam.  Essendon have the bye in round 24.  So Heppell may help you make the Grand Final, but he won’t win it for you.  Pick him, but you are guanrteeing buring a trade late in the season.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Jack Darling

@Dreamteam_Guru is now focusing on first year forwards.  Are you also going to pick Jack Darling?

Jack Darling. It’s a nice name.  Jack is a powerful name, and Darling has all the endearing qualities you want in your dreams.  Jack Darling will be a powerful player for your dreamteam in 2011.

He was taken at pick 26 by West Coast, which is an absolute steal. 12 months ago, people were talking about him going in the top 5.  Some injuries and off-field incidents have pushed him down the order, but you should still consider him.

He is staying in his home state.  That has to be good for his development as a player and as a man.  He will be settled into his new AFL lifestyle quickly.

He is at an underachieving club.  This is good news for Dreamteamers.  He will play games without having to fight for his place.  Wosha will be forced to play kids, and Darling will be one of the first pick.

Finally he is a forward.  It is usually easy to find first year midfielders, but it can be hard to find cheap defenders, forwards and rucks.  Jack Darling is one of two forwards (the other being Sam Day) that I see as logical choices this year.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Maverick Wellar

@Dreamteam_Guru continues to look at first year players in the hope of unearthing a bargain player.  Today’s player is Maverick Wellar of the Gold Coast.

I was considering long and hard if I should write a piece on this Tasmanian import. 

I mean, ideally I want to win my dreamteam league this year, and if I don’t mention him, he might go under your radar and I have a bigger chance of winning the league.

But what would be even better is if you can use some of my advice, tweak it to your needs and beat me.  So I reveal the following.  Pick Maverick Wellar.

Wellar wasn’t drafted – he was pre-selected by the Gold Coast.  As such, he won’t be on many people’s radars.  His name wasn’t read out on draft day, but if it was I can guarantee that he would have gone in the top ten of the draft!

The other  positive about Wellar is that he was just placed into the leadership group of the Gold Coast.  To put this into perspective, David Swallow isn’t in the leadership group.  If the Gold Coast have this player lined up as a future captain of the club, that is great dreamteam news for us. Why? Because they will play him every single week.

Pick him when his price as low, sell him when his price is high, or consider keeping him for the season.

I hope I don’t regret writing this one!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - David Swallow

The @Dreamteam_Guru continues to look at first year players with today’s focus on Gold Coast recruit, David Swallow.

First round draft pick.  Not only that, but pick one.  It’s a dreamteam rule, really – pick the player that was taken first in the draft.  There are 2 main reasons for doing this.

Firstly – he has to be pick one for a reason.  He is the best first year player in the competition, therefore you need him in your team.

Secondly – everyone else will have him, and they will purchase him at the cheapest price that he will be all season – before round one.

David Swallow won’t win you any games this season. Odds are the opponent you are playing will have him on their team as well.  The reason to have him is to nullify the impact your opponent can have with him. If David Swallow scores 94 points, he will do it for you and he will do it for your opposition.  If he scores 3 points, he will do it for you and your opposition.

But you have to have him.  Odds are he will average over 80 for the season, and if you don’t have him, you will need another player that averages similar (or higher) at a cheap price so your opposition doesn’t beat you.

To win Dreamteam, you must select players that your opponent doesn’t have.  But in some cases, you need to pick the player that everyone else has so he doesn’t hurt you.  That’s why so many people pick Gary Ablett year after year, and why everyone will jump on Dane Swan this year.

Pick Swallow, but you must look elsewhere for a player that will win you games.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Mitch Wallis

Continuing with @Dreamteam_Guru’s focus on first year players, today we have a look at Mitch Wallis of the Western Bulldogs.

The Western Bulldogs did well in last year’s draft.  Very, very well.  In a year where draft picks were owned by the Gold Coast, with a smattering of picks available for the other 16 clubs, the Western Bulldogs used their first 2 picks on Father/Son selections.  Firstly Mitch Wallis at pick 22, followed by Tom Libreatore at pick 41. 

Both of these picks are steals.  I am certain if available that Mitch Wallis would have gone top 10.

Libreatore would have certainly been in the top 20.

If I could only find a place on my team for one of these players this year, I would pick Wallis.  He has dominated his year group for years, and is almost certain to figure heavily in the Western Bulldogs team this year.

The only issue I have is that he might not get the opportunities he deserves with the Western Bulldogs on the brink of Premiership success.  With this in mind, Rocket Eade might not be so willing to play first year players.  However, I am sure that Wallis will get time during the year.

Have a good look during preseason to see if Eade plays either Wallis or Libreatore.  If he plays both, go with Wallis.

 This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

First Year Players - Isaac Smith

Dreamteam Guru Future BLOGs

This is the first @Dreamteam_Guru look at first year players you should consider this season.  For those who are new to Dreamteam, first year players are the cheapest, and therefore the ones that you can get the most value out of.  There prices will rise with the experience they get through the season, allowing you to sell them and upgrade to a more expensive player.

The first player I am looking at is Hawthorn’s mature age recruit, Isaac Smith.  Hawthorn believed he was a steal at pick 19 in the draft, and he is a pick you should consider for your midfield.

He has spent time playing in the VFL, which means he used to playing against players who are older than him, bigger bodied and more experienced.  Regardless of this, he still finds a lot of ball, which means a lot of dreamteam points.

Hawthorn are having a serious shot at gaining the 2011 premiership.  With this in mind, they used their first draft pick on a player they could use immediately, and not on a player of the future.  I expect Smith to line up for the hawks in round one.

Even still, it will be worth having a look at if he is picked for Hawthorn in the NAB cup, and how Hawthorn use him.  I am hoping that he will be the Michael Barlow of 2011.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

The Michael Barlow Factor

What an outstanding and unique year 2010 was for Michael Barlow & his band of merry dreamteamers. Big value, and huge price rise before he got injured and missed the rest of the season.

Barlow was good enough to injure himself in the 4th term so as not to hurt his value when we all sold him.

The afl website revealed his starting price yesterday at $456,200. He simply can't be picked at this price.

He is still on minimal training and won't have the benefit of a full unrestricted preseason.

His price elevates him to the heights of seasoned dreamteam performers. Luke Hodge, Marc Murphy, Joel Corey and Joel Selwood will be similarly priced- or cheaper.

For the big outlay, Barlow isn't worth taking before round 1. Wait for him to drop in price during the season as it surely will.

Thanks to his price. Barlow will go from being one of the most picked players to one of the least.

Season 2011 - Preperations are A-Happenin'

I am the @Dreamteam_Guru from Twitter, and I have decided to expand from the 140 characters that I normally write by writing a BLOG.  From here, I will write my thoughts and tips throughout the year. 

I have begun doing my preparation for 2011. The @DT_Gurus_Cousin (new to Twitter - follow him too) and I decided last year to go halves in a Prospectus.  This is being sent to him, which means that I have to wait for him before I can scan it for the facts of the season.  However, armed with last year's Prospectus and an Excel Spreadsheet, I have begun to work out how to pick a team for 2011.

I need to look at the whole league this year, rather than just my top 50 or so.  The reason for this is that the @DT_Gurus_Cousin and I are setting up a “Keeper League” this year.  We run a draft, and instead of a salary cap, every player is available once.  You are free to trade and delist, but the idea is that you have them for their entire career.  Serious research is needed.

I have placed all players on an Excel Spreadsheet to help me calculate what they are worth to me (and not the dollar value assigned to them via the AFL website). To do this, I needed to calculate what factors were important when selecting someone.  This is what I deemed as important.

·         Last Year’s average score

·         The players average score for the last 3 seasons

·         Where they were taken in the draft

·         Their age

·         Average games per season over the last 3 seasons.

So value is attributed to players with more career ahead of them, who score high and are durable.

To go further with this, I needed to give a numbered value to each of these stats.

Average score is easy – it is what it is.  If it’s 100, it’s 100.  If it’s 54, it’s 54. 

Draft.  I decided that Father/Son is just as good as being taken in top 10.  I assigned these players 10 points. If you were picked between 11 and 20, I gave the player 5 points.  21-50 got 2 points and above 50 got 0 points.  If you were elevated off the rookie list, I gave you five points too.

Age. 20 or under is worth 10 points to me.  21-24 is worth 8.  25-28 is worth 5. 29 is over is worth -5.  Best part of the career is probably gone, and durability has to be a factor.  Also, if I am drafting for the future, what use is a 33 year old forward to me?

Average games per season.  The David Mundy factor.  It’s better to play each week and score 75 than play 10 games and average 100.  If you average 20 games a season over the last 3 years, I give you 10 points, and an additional point for each game that is over 60 games in this period. 

Is my system unfair for players that have played for less than three years?  Given that a Dustin Martin can’t have played 60 games yet, he can get points for averaging 20 games for the season. I would also work out that his three year average score is just his 2010 average score.

So, I am waiting on the @DT_Gurus_Cousin to provide me with 2010 stats, but so far I am armed with the 2009 and 2008 data which is helping me calculate the 3 year averages.  I haven’t calculated games played yet, and I need the 2010 data to do this.

So far I have calculated

·         Average score from 2008 and 2009 (thanks year old Prospectus)

·         Where they were taken in the draft

·         Age

I will add soon last year’s average score and average games per season.

At this time, I will reveal who I believe the 10 most valuable players to be.

But with 2008-9 data, the top are.

Gary Ablett – 130.5

Jimmy Bartel – 126

Marc Murphy – 118

Nick Riewoldt - 117.5

Dane Swan – 116.

I will expect Swan to jump big time due to his explosive 2010!

Remember that the trouble with formula is that it doesn’t allow you to pick on your gut instincts.  If you think that Jack Ziebell is going to have a big year, pick him even if the stats don’t back it up!!!

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Comment are welcome, but best to do this via twitter the ensure I see it!