@Dreamteam_Guru Captain Choices – Round 2

Each week, @Dreamteam_Guru will have a look at the round ahead and have a look at who you should pick as captain for the week

There are three ways I will look at captain choice’s each week.  Firstly, who in my team I will pick.  Secondly, someone outside my team I would pick and finally a smokie.  This is probably best to use against me rather than taken as good advice!

Who the Guru will pick:  Dane Swan (Guru ranked 3^rd player in the league) is my most expensive player.  He is my lock of a captain, and will be my captain most weeks barring injuries and byes.

Who Guru doesn’t have, but would pick if I had them: In an alternate reality, I don’t have Swan.  In this alternate reality, I would pick Gary Ablett Jnr (Guru rated 1^st player in the league). I know he has had a limited pre-season (i.e. none), but if there has every been anyone with a point to prove, its Gary.  I reckon he will pumped up to play fantastically in the first ever game for AFL’s pet-project, the Gold Coast.  His first game may be one to remember.

Smokie: I don’t feel a smokie is allowed to be in my top 50 ranked players.  Otherwise, they aren’t a smokie, but rather dreamteam quality.  How about this? Shane Tuck.  If he plays.  Shane Tuck is Guru rated 57^th player in the league, and if selected he will be playing for his spot in the team.  A man on a mission can be a great man for dreamteam.  Only worry is they are playing St Kilda who are a highly defensive team and may stifle Tuck.  But a smokie does have to have an element of risk about it, right?

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

Round 2 - 2 trade or not 2 trade?

@ Dreamteam_Guru ponders this age old question....

Good question too.

You may have a Jonathan Brown who you know won't play this weekend.

You might have a Joel Selwood who will most likely decrease in value after three games.

You might be like the Guru and have Chris Yarran and be upset with his round 1 output & want to give him the chop.

Guru says hold off a week.

Trades are limited, and bench sizes have increased. You should be able to use your bench to cover injured players.

Consider: you sell Brown this week for David Zaharakis. This might work well for you. However round 2 is the last week before player's value changes.

If Zaharakis has a poor game, this will effect your team's value.

If Zaharakis gets injured, it will cost you another trade.

I say have faith in your bench and start using trades next week.

You better have a good week, Yarran!


This blog has been written by the @Dreamteam_Guru - follow on Twitter. To ensure comments are read, please send via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru - Current Line Up

Time to reveal all.

I am sure there will be last minute changes, but this is how I look like going into round 1.

Defenders:
Goddard
Gibbs
Deledio
Broughton
Grimes
Heppell
Lower

Bench:
Tape
McKernnan
Toy

Midfielders:
Swan
Corey
Jack
Gram
Atley
Liberatore

Bench:
Swallow
Prestia
Harris

Rucks:
Sandilands
Leuenberger

Bench:
Fraser
Petrie

Forwards:
Sylvia
Riewoldt
Pavlich
Davis
Yarran
Knights
Krakouer

Bench
Richardson
Tapscott
Darling

How does it compare to you XXXIII - let the Guru know via Twitter!

@Dreamteam_Guru Captain Choices – Round 1

Each week, @Dreamteam_Guru will have a look at the round ahead and have a look at who you should pick as captain for the week

There are three ways I will look at captain choice’s each week.  Firstly, who in my team I will pick.  Secondly, someone outside my team I would pick and finally a smokie.  This is probably best to use against me rather than taken as good advice!

Who the Guru will pick:  Dane Swan (Guru ranked 3^rd player in the league) is my most expensive player.  I picked him as he has been dreamteam gold over the last few years, and everyone needs a captain.  This week they play against Port Adelaide, which should be an easy win, and easy possessions for Swan.  If you have him in your team, it seems like the obvious choice this week.

Who Guru doesn’t have, but would pick if I had them: In an alternate reality, I don’t have Swan.  Like many dreamteamers, I don’t have Chris Judd (Guru rated 18^th player in the league) in my team, but love the way he plays.  This week he is playing Richmond.  You would think that Carlton would easily account for Richmond, with Judd leading the way.  In last year’s Brownlow medal, Judd dominated his first 5 games for the season and this could easily begin again this week.  Judd then plays Gold Coast the week after, so he could be a good choice as captain 2 weeks in a row.

Smokie: I don’t feel a smokie is allowed to be in my top 50 ranked players.  Otherwise, they aren’t a smokie, but rather dreamteam quality.  I was thinking Scott Thompson, but he is 27^th on my list.  Hardly a smokie. How about Dale Thomas?  He is ranked 95^th in my list of players, and as mentioned above is only playing Port.  Collingwood have dominated the preseason, are playing a struggling club (who are rumoured to be playing three debutants – conceding perhaps?).  Thomas has been going from strength to strengths and was unlucky to miss out on a Norm Smith.  If you don’t have Swan in your team, why not pick Thomas as your captain?

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Money Isn’t an Issue Midfielder – Dane Swan Collingwood, $511,200

@DreamteamGuru rated 2nd player in the league

I didn’t have Dane Swan in my team last year.

I didn’t win my league last year.

I also didn’t make the Grand Final last year.

This is such a mathematical truth it isn’t funny.  To win dreamteam, you must have Dane Swan, and he must be your captain.

Consider:
2008 – average score 103
2009 – average score 119
2010 – average score 123

His lowest score last season was 83. The 104^th best player in my ranking system averaged 83. He is that good.  His worst performance would still net him a near top 100 place.

He doesn’t miss games either – heavily durable, efficient and reliable dreamteamer.

Let’s consider him within company.

1.       Gary Ablett (273)

2.       Dane Swan (268)

3.       Brendon Goddard (254.333)

4.       Matthew Boyd (253)

5.       Jimmy Bartel (253)

Ablett and Swan are 14 points higher than Goddard.  In this type of formula, that’s about 15 miles.  In other words, your team needs either one of these players, or both of these players.

For me, it has to be Swan.  Ablett within a new team is an unknown quantity. Ablett has averaged 116.667 over the last 3 seasons, but he has also played with Bartell, Corey, Selwood, Enright, Chapman...the 18 year old bodies of the Gold Coast don’t really compare for me, and this should mean a dreamteam drop for Sir Gary. This means I pick Swan and lock him in before round 1.

I’d like to think I will get Ablett in my team, but it won’t happen before round 10, after the Gold Coast have had both their byes for 2011.  In other words, I am ignoring my own formula and saying “Swan is the most important Dreamteam player of the year!”

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Money Isn’t an Issue Forward – Paul Chapman Geelong, $472,200

Guru rated 4^th player in the league

Year upon year I find it hard weather to pick Chapman or not.  He is prolific forward option, however how much can we trust those hamstrings? 

2008: I picked him.  I regretted picking him. Hamstring = twang
2009: I picked him.  I regretted picking him. Hamstring = twang
2010: I didn’t pick him. I didn’t make the grand final. Hamstring = tick

You can’t win dreamteam without taking a few risks along the way.  This year, I have decided to keep the faith, but the worry behind me and pick him.

And even though his hamstrings don’t usually get him through the season, he is still averaging over 20 games a season in the last 3 years.  That’s pretty good.  Perhaps this year with the use of the bye, Geelong will be able to nurse him better during the season.

Here is why he is worth the risk.

2008: 93
2009: 112
2010: 114

Good numbers for a midfielder.  Great numbers for a forward and makes him well worth the risk.

Let’s compare him to the other top 5 forwards in the competition according to my rankings.

4. Paul Chapman (253.333)
9. Alan Didak (249)
17. Colin Sylvia (234)
23. Lance Franklin (230.333)
24. Nick Riewoldt (229.667)

I have managed to squeeze two of these in with the salary cap, and I have the sixth best forward in Matthew Pavlich too.  The thing about picking Chapman is the amount you have to outlay to be able to pay for him.  A less risky bet would be to pick Didak or Sylvia ahead of him.

Initially I did have Didak ahead of Chapman.  But I looked at Chapman’s numbers and decided he needed selection. Didak is averaging 99 over the last 3 years, but Chapman is averaging 106.333 in that time.   I see Chapman as a good Captain material too (like Goddard yesterday), where as I wouldn’t be confident in selecting Didak as a captain.  I also didn’t want to many Collingwood players in my team as they are affected by the bye.

This left a choice between Sylvia and Chapman. We know that I did trade Sylvia out earlier, which pained me to do.  Although Sylvia is a top 20 player, he averaged 18 points less than Chapman last year.  That’s significant, and I felt that my forward line was a weak point (certainly is compared to my defence).  I need someone there to lead my forward line, and Chapman is a good choice. 

Chapman (and Geelong) have a bye during dreamteam finals.  This is a big negative considering the amount we have to outlay for him.  However, if I finish top 4, and if I win my first final (two big ifs!), the bye won’t affect me as I myself will have bye that week.

Big risk, but as I said earlier, dreamteam can’t be one without risk.

So have I convinced you to pick him, or turned you off him completely?

Update**** I have traded Chapman out.  Late mail coming out of Geelong is that Chapman will be struggling for round one.  I am hoping this makes his value drop (if he does play) so I can pick him up later on.  If he is under an ijury cloud, he might be used as a sub, which is a dreamteam killer for a guy cosing me $472K.  I have re-selected Colin Sylvia (discussed in earlier BLOG). With the money I saved, I upgraded Charlie Dixon for Jeff Galett.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Money Isn’t an Issue Defender – Brendon Goddard, St Kilda $471,000

Guru rated 2^nd player in the league

Now we’re talking.

Has to be in your team.

According my to my player rankings, he is the only defender to break into the top 10.

There are gun midfielders that can’t break into the top ten.  So why select them, when you can have Goddard in defence?

Goddard is a dual position player, who will line up the majority of team in the defence.  The reason is that you can gain cheap midfielders who are still capable of scoring you 90+ most weeks (fingers crossed for Kieran Jack this year!)

However, if you have a similar strategy to me this year, you may sub him into your midfield to cover some bye rounds of your other players.

The main reason you have to have him in your team is because everyone else does.  If you don’t have Goddard and he scores a 135 round, you will be the one who misses out, and you will lose the game.

When you get to spending this much money, you are entering captain material, which is where Goddard might win you a game or two.  If you pick Goddard as captain and St Kilda are playing against the Gold Coast, while Collingwood’s Swan is playing a Geelong (for example), Goddard might score more than Swan and therefore give you a win through Captain choices.

He will be vice captain most weeks.  I have a set and forget captain (who will be revealed in a couple of BLOGs time), but do consider this strategy to get the maximum value out of Goddard.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Money Isn’t an Issue Ruck – Aaron Sandilands, Freo $406,500

Guru rated 30^th player in the league.

It used to be that you had to pick Dean Cox first, then another ruck and two cheapies.  That was until the rise and rise of Freo.  And the rise of Freo has centred around this man – Sandilands.

He is a giant off the field, but in dreamteam speak, he is a giant on the field.

Ruckman aren’t known for their big dreamteam scores.  In fact, one strategy is not to spend too much in the ruck department and load up on midfielders.  This can work.

However, the $406K here is well spent.

Look at this:

2010: 98
2009: 95
2008: 82

They look midfield numbers, but they are actually the number one ruckman in the competition.  For this reason alone, you should pick him.

However, there is an issue with picking him.  Most other teams will have him too.  Therefore, the power of having him in your team primarily is to negate other people who have him too.  Its a defensive move to pick him, but that doesn’t make it a bad move.

But you will need to think closely about your 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th ruck!

Often in these BLOGs I have compared them to other people in my ranking system.  To illustrate the worth of Sandilands, I thought I’d compare him to the other top 5 ruckman in the competition according you my rankings and show you the difference.

30. Aaron Sandilands (220.667)
64. Dean Cox (204.333)
87. Patrick Ryder (197)
101. Hamish McIntosh (194)
108. Kepler Bradley (191.333)

There is only three ruckman in the top 100, and only one in the top 50.  This is reason enough to pick him.

If you the salary cap to do it, I would suggest teaming him up with McIntosh.  I myself have the 15^th, 16^th and 26^th best ruckman alongside him.

I don’t invest heavily in the ruck, but I will in Sandilands.  Do you have him too?

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

Dream Team for Dummies

Inspired by @solskjaer025 & posted by @DTTALK earlier in the week is a BLOG on how to start dreamteam for the very first time. 

Many people that do Dreamteam have been doing it for years.  This makes it very hard for those of us who have never played.  Read on to see how you can have an effective dreamteam the first time you play!

Dream Team for Dummies – How to make a basic team

Do you have a girlfriend, wife, daughter, son or friend from NSW that has no idea about Dream Team but is bugging you to get involved or you want an excuse to have more time to talk about Dream Team? 

For years, Mrs Guru has picked a team based on players she knows.  It has become apparent over time that she only knows high-priced forwards (Franklin, Riewoldt, Rioli, Roughead, Hall, Monfries...), a couple of midfielders (Jobe, Ablett) and no defenders (   ).  This has meant that she has been loaded with rookies in one position, had an erratic forward line and a decent captain.  Yet to make the finals, Mrs Guru has nearly come to the end of the rope and is threatening to not play DT anymore.

Like Mrs Guru, get your new comers to follow the Guru's blue print for a competitive Dream Team.  It won’t be the best team in the comp, but it won’t be the percentage booster that some girlfriends submit year after year.

For those senior players out there, below is a list of names that you might not have considered that are potential cash cows - and we all know that you need them to win the competition (memories of 2010 Michael Barlow, and then his subsequent injury and over priced price of 2011).

Pick 2 Premium D/M’s

Choose from Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Scotland, Gilbee, Carrazzo

Pick 1 Premium Def

Choose from Connors, Enright, Broughton, Mackie, Duffield

Pick 2 Medium Range Def’s

Choose from Dempsey, Everitt, Grima, R Shaw, Thornton, Broadbent

Pick 1 Cheap Def

Choose from Otten, Tape, Coad, Stanley

Pick 4 Rookie Def’s

Choose from Toy, Howard, Faulks, McKernan, Puopolo, Duigan, Lower, Hutchins

Pick 3 Premium Mid’s

Choose from Swan, Montagna, Boyd, Cross, Boyd, Pendlebury, Ablett, Hayes, Judd, K Cornes

Pick 1 Unique Mid

Choose from Jack, A Swallow, Tuck, Watson

Pick 1 Cheap Mid

Choose from D Swallow, Gaff, Polec

Pick 1 Cheap M/F

Choose from A Krakouer, I Smith, G Rohan

Pick 1 Cheap D/M

Choose from Heppell, Hibberd

Pick 2 Rookie Mids

Choose from Harris, Atley, Contin, Green, Liberatore, Wallis

Pick 1 Premium Ruck

Choose from Sandilands, Ryder, Cox

Pick 1 2^nd Tier Ruck

Choose from Jolly, Mumford, Goldstein, Kreuzer, Clark

Pick 1 Cheap Ruck

Choose from Z Smith, Bailey, Redden, Derickx

Pick 1 Rookie Listed Ruck

Choose from Macauley, Curnow, Bathie, McCulloch

Pick 1 Premium M/F

Choose from Didak, Sylvia, Chapman, Harvey, Goodes

Pick 2 Premium For’s

Choose from Franklin, N Riewoldt, Green, S Johnson, Ginasiracusa, Brown, Cloke, Rioli or another Premium M/F

Pick 1 Unique For

Choose from Schneider, J Riewoldt, Stokes, LeCras, Gray

Pick 1 Mid Range M/F

Choose from M Morton, Ler Jetta, Zaharakis, Petterd, Fyfe

Pick 1 Cheap For

Choose from Watts, Knights, Veszpremi, Gamble

Pick 4 Rookie For’s

Choose From Matera, Archer, Richardson, Skiner, Prestia, Lamb, Michie, Day

Now you may have gone slightly over budget if you simply chose the most expensive player in each option, so go back and change a few of the expensive picks.

Ensure you don’t have more than 2 players from the same team for each position.

This should give you a solid start to the Dream Team Season.

Good Luck!

DTG

@Dreamteam_Guru DPP Mid/For #1 Colin Sylvia – Melbourne, $399,500

Guru rated 17^th player in the league

Traded for Collingwood Leon Davis, Forward $266,700

Guru rated 211^th player in the league

This trade hurt.  I love Colin Sylvia.  I love that he is dual position player. I love that he in unaffected by the bye. I love that he is in the top 20 players in the competition and under $400K (just).  However, he proved to be too expensive for me this time around.  To have him, I had to sacrifice a decent defender, and I didn’t see too many mid-priced defenders I would like.

Then I saw the way that Collingwood have been playing Davis during pre-season.  In defence.  He is listed as a forward in dreamteam, and I see this as a big reward for dreamteamers.

He will get the ball more.  He  will be creative with the ball and will play like Luke Hodge and Brent Guerra have in the past for Hawthorn – quarter back options who are only there to kick the ball. That equals dreamteam points.

1 year ago when I paid for my AFL prospectus, Davis was listed on the front cover as in Champion Data’s best 22 for the season as a forward.  In that year he averaged 99. Last year he only averaged 64 and went down in value.  Now is the time to snap him up.  $266K is nothing, and having him and Chris Knights in my team is a good move – they are both cheap (allowing me to spend more in defence and in the ruck) and could both be potential starting players come round 24, meaning I haven’t had to sacrifice a trade.

If he does get injured, I would have still made money off him and could upgrade him for a Colin Sylvia then.

Syliva, although you aren’t in my 33 now, be assured that I believe you will be come round 24.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru DPP Def/Mid #4 – Bryce Gibbs, Carlton $400,400

@DreamteamGuru rated 16th player in the league

16^th in the league?  Hardly.  He will be one of the most picked dreamteamers this year, and with his move into defence (at least in dreamteam positioning) he becomes an even more attractive pick for us.  Why?  Midfielders – there are many quality ones.  Defence and Forward it gets a little harder, yet we are forced to play an extra one!  Tough, AFL!!!

A defence made of three guns should have Gibbs and Goddard.  Then you will float the idea of an Enright, Carrazzo or a Mackie.

Like many quality picks, Gibbs will be in many line ups. This means that mainly he will be a defensive pick as he won’t be the difference to win you a game.  But he will help you achieve high scores.  This helps.  Just not in winning games.

However, if you don’t pick him, your opposition will have a clear advantage.  So pick him. Now.

Let’s put Gibbs in perspective.

13. Nick Dal Santo (234.333)
14. Alan Didak (234)
15. Chris Judd (233)
16. Bryce Gibbs (232.667)
17. Brent Stanton (232.667)
18. Luke Hodge (232.667)
19. Kane Cornes (231.333)

All clearly valuable picks. Tough.

At time of writing (before Feb 1 when DT opened), the rumour mill had it that Hodge won’t be a defender option this year.  This makes him less valuable, and as such I would pick Gibbs ahead of him.  In fact, if both are available as defenders, I will be picking Gibbs first.

Although I don’t like Didak, he is an excellent dreamteam choice.  Especially as a forward.

The other member of this list I will strongly consider is Kane Cornes. Unlike Gibbs (where everyone has him), a lot of people don’t pick Port players because they either don’t like them, or don’t know them.  Kane is a chance of winning you a league, as your opposition (usually) won’t have him

Unless you’re playing me.

Can’t pick Stanton as he is a premium who can’t win you a grand final.  Would hate to line up in grand final with Stanton on my bench and forced to play a rookie who will score me 50-odd points.

Many of these players are a chance at my squad, however Gibbs does stand out in this hallowed company.  Welcome to the Gurus, Gibbs!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru DPP Def/Mid #3 – Brett Deledio, Richmond $371,300

Guru rated 14^th player in the league

Forget his dual ability – a player listed in my top 15 who is under $400K is worth picking on that fact alone!  The fact that he can cover weak points in my midfield and defence when other teams have a bye and that he will be available in dreamteam finals makes Deledio a must for my team this year.

There are other higher profile round 1, pick 1 draft selections, but Deledio has proved his worth, especially in dreamteam.

Look at this.

2010: 89
2009: 96
2008: 98

Okay.  The numbers are on a slight decline, but with an improving team, he might not get the heavy tag he has in the past.  Decent numbers for a team that has been anything but decent.  I’d expect him to have a year like 2008 this year – or better.  Repeat – at his current price he is a must!!!

Let’s compare him to other players in the Guru scale around him.

11. Michael Barlow (246)
12. Scott Pendlebury (245.667)
13. Marc Murphy (240)
14. Brett Deledio (238.333)
15. Lenny Hayes (235.333)
16. Nick Dal Santo (234.333)
17. Colin Sylvia (234)

One of my first BLOGS this year was on why you shouldn’t pick Michael Barlow this year. Pass.

Pendles would be in my team if I had the money.  I am expecting to upgrade for him or Ablett later in the season.

Marc Murphy has a bye in dream team finals.  I would want adequate midfield cover before selecting him, and at the moment I don’t.  Pass.

Hayes is very old for dreamteam now.  Still gets great numbers, but I am worried that he can’t sustain his output/durability.  Pass (but I do love him).

Dal Santo. I’ve never selected him before. He is a good player, but he doesn’t seem to fit who I want for dreamteam.  Pass, but on instinct only.

Colin Sylvia will be chatted about in a future BLOG.

If I could only select one at this stage, I would take Pendles.  However, for what I need in my team, Deledio is the man.  Underpriced, great value and multi positional.  Welcome to the Gurus!

BLOG written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru – for feedback please post on twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru DPP Def/Mid #2 – Jason Gram, St Kilda $349,700

Guru rated 42^nd player in the league.

I have previously thought Gram to be over rated, and in our system game Supercoach, I might be right.  He kicks looks great when he gets the ball and kicks in 60 metres into attack, but more commonly than not it results in turnovers.

This year, he seems a bit cheap to me.  Maybe the folks at Champion Data feel the same way as me?

What really cemented Gram into my side this year was his ability to shift between mid and defence to help me out when other teams have the bye.  Like Heppell (yesterday’s BLOG), Gram will be a good stock gap when bigger names are out.  Unlike Heppell, Gram won’t be fighting for a starting berth on my team. Over the last 3 years, Gram has averaged 85 and played 22 games a season.  That’s good numbers for a defender at this price.

Game time is guaranteed as St Kilda love him.

Let’s compare him to other people around him in my ranking system.

39. Sam Gilbert (217.667)
40. Ryan Griffin (217)
41. Matt Priddis (216.333)
42. Jason Gram (216)
43. Heath Scotland (214.667)
44. Andrew Carazzo (214)
45. James Kelly (214)

2 other defender/midfielders in this regions along with a defender/forward.  Sam Gilbert is the Defender/Forward, and I haven’t used the ability to swap from defence to a forward in my planning in this year’s DT.  If I did, he would be a forward for me this year.

Griffin and Priddis annoy me.  Priddis over handballs and Griffin can be great, but has a bit of the Jarod Brennan’s about him – highly gifted, highly erratic.

James Kelly would be a decent pick, but with a new coach and no Ablett, I’m not too eager to pick Geelong players this year without seeing their game plan.

Scotland has age against him.  Over 30 means that if Carlton don’t have the season they are expecting, they may drop him for youth.

The choice of Carazzo Vs Gram is a tough one.  What nails it for me is that Carlton have a bye during dream team finals.  As such, I would need to cover him in a super important game.  Gram doesn’t have a bye in the last 4 games of the season, so he is my option here.

BLOG written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru – for feedback please post on twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru DPP Def/Mid #1 – Dyson Heppell, Essendon $132,500

Guru rated 517^th player in the league

Part of my major strategy this year is a healthy reliance on dual position players – especially when it comes to the great stock that is available as defender/midfielders.

Heppell is a first year player, playing for a team on the improve.  I am expecting him to get plenty of game time for Essendon.

This is great news for DT strategy.  Having Heppell at a cheap price with a couple (or more) gun def/mid will give you adequate coverage when the dreaded bye hits either your defence or midfield.

Heppell won’t be available to win us the grand final, but he could lend a hand it getting us to the play off.  At this stage, I will be looking at selling him on and upgrading my defence or midfield.

Heppell should be in most people’s dreamteam this year, and with the uniqueness of the 17 team format this year, he is great value.  He could easily start most weeks and give you coverage for when Goddard or Gibbs have the bye.  Swallow might be good, but he won’t do that for you!

BLOG written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru – for feedback please post on twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Defender - Geelong, Andrew Mackie Defender $365,000

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 46^th player in the league

Traded for Jack Grimes, Melbourne Defender

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 158^th player in the league

Dreamteam is about favourites, and Andrew Mackie has been one of the Gurus for the last couple of seasons.  Is it because he has a Timmy Rogers haircut?  Maybe.  Is it because he is listed as a defender but doesn’t play like one.  Yeah – that’s it.

Mackie is a consistent performer.

2010 – 88
2009 – 86
2008 – 91

When he got dropped last year, the Guru nearly cried.  It ruined my team balance at an important time of the year.  With a change of coaching structure, he might be assured more game time, but my heart has already been broken.

Jack Grimes is the reason I felt confident enough to trade out Brad Green – he won’t be affected by the bye, and will be a steady hand for the Guru’s defence.

The Demons have been raving about this preseason, and I think after this season he will be in my top 100 ranked players.  Consider him to be my Kieran Jack of defence.

With the amount of money you outlay for a defender like Grimes he has to be a keeper for the season.  In his case, he isn’t picked for his dollar value.  He is picked to be playing in defence come round 24 this year.  If I trade him, it will only be due to injury.  And I wouldn’t expect to make any profit from that situation.

So Jack “Frank” Grimes – have a safe, consistent season averaging 90+.  This will keep the Guru happy.

BLOG written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru – for feedback please post on twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Unaffected Bye Player #4 Brad Green, Melbourne, Forward $409,000

Guru rated 48^th player in the league

Traded for Jonathan Brown, Brisbane Forward $361,000

Guru rated 68^th player in the league

Traded for Nick Riewoldt, St Kilda, Forward $391,900

Guru rated 24^th player in the league

Well you can see that this position has been a source of much head scratching for me.  Originally, I thought that I should have at least one player from Melbourne, Sydney, Freo and Brisbane at minimum to help me with their bye situations.

Although I picked Brad Green, I wasn’t too happy with his price.  I also had a couple of other Melbourne players, so I thought I could save some money.

I had already traded Luke Power out and didn’t have any Lions left.  I though Brown’s price made him worth picking.  I then had this thought – who is going to get the ball to Brown?  For a forward to score well they need good supply.  Brisbane don’t have this at present, so I thought “pass”

Nick Riewoldt has been in my teams for most seasons that I have dreamteamed.  He is the top 25 players (unlike Brown and Green), but is cheaper than Green. 

The way Riewoldt plays is great for dreamtemers – he marks a lot of ball, and most of the time he disposes it by foot. He will kick 50-70 goals for the season making him a good choice.

St Kilda are only affected by the bye once, meaning there is only one round this year that their byes will hurt me.  For a saving of $20K and gaining a more reliable dreamteamer (remember Green’s age), I chose Riewoldt in the end.

There is only one outright forward who is higher on my rankings – Lance Franlikn, who is one spot higher in 23^rd. I never feel comfortable with him in my line up as I feel he needs to kick a bag to score well.  He did average 99 last year which is great for a forward, but I prefer Riewoldt’s price and consistency.

BLOG written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru – for feedback please post on twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Unaffected Bye Player #3 Adam Goodes, Sydney, Forward $393,200

Guru rated 32^nd player in the league

Traded for Kieran Jack, Sydney Midfielder $376,000

Guru rated 93^rd player in the league

Initially I had so many mid/for that I was going to play two from my midfield and about 5 or 6 from my forward line.

 Potentially a good strategy, but it meant that I didn’t have a place in my team for my smokey of the year – Kieran Jack.

Those of you that follow the Guru on twitter would be aware that I have been pumping up Kieran Jack during the off season.  I know that I have my ranking system to select a quality team, but that doesn’t take in effect instinct.  My instincts tell me that 2011 is the year of the Jack.

If I had this feeling about a player, I had to find a place for him.  I had primarily picked Goodes for his dual position and unaffected bye nature.  I already have plenty of mid/forwards, so losing this aspect for a pure mid wasn’t a big loss for me.

Kieran Jack also is affected by the bye (as he plays on the same team as Goodes!), so when he has a bye it won’t effect by head to head comps – remember I want to win the league, and not the overall points.

So I saved about $17K for “downgrading” Goodes for Jack, but I believe this to be a sound investment.  Jack should have a year to remember, and I believe will be worth more than his current value come round 24.

All things being well, he should line up for the Gurus come Grand Final day!

Welcome to the Guru’s Jack – now go out and prove me right!!!

BLOG written by Twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru.  Follow the Guru on twitter for more DT info, and send comments to via twitter to ensure they are read.  Happy dreamteaming!

@Dreamteam_Guru Unaffected Bye Player #2 Mathew Pavlich, Freo, Forward $380,700

Guru rated 26^th player in the league

When I saw that Freo would be unaffected by the bye this year, Pavlich went above other possible forward options for me.  Ahead of Riewoldt and ahead of Franklin.

I also like his dual position flexibility, meaning he can help cover midfielders when they are out injured or have a bye themselves.

In short, for less than $400K, I have a gun player that cover me in lots of different areas.

Let’s compare him to other players that are around him in the Guru rankings

25. Lance Frankilin (230.333)
26. Nick Riewoldt (229.667)
27. Sam Mitchell (228)
28. Matthew Pavlich (226.667)
29. Scott Thompson (225.667)
30. Joel Corey (223)
31. Jared Brennan (222.333)

From earlier BLOGs, it has been revealed that I have Joel Corey.  Ex-top 5 Guru ranked player coming off injury and should have a good 2011. 

All these names are of interest for the Guru, and it is peculiar that there are so many forwards here.

I could never bring myself to pick Brennan as I perceive his scoring to be too erratic.  Might score 150 one week and 40 the next.  I like to have players that I can rely on like a pendulum, and Brennan doesn’t do that enough for me.  Too Stevie J for me.

Franklin and Riewoldt.  I feel that Franklin is over priced this year.  Considering he is so close to Nick on my rankings, if I had to pick one or the other, I would pick Riewoldt purely on the saving.

Scott Thompson is a good dreamteamer for this list, as he does go under the radar compared to other names in this part of the list.  Not many people know him, and you could be forgiven for walking straight past him the street.  This is good for us dreamteamers, because is no one else has him, he could be the player to win you games. With player like Goddard and Swallow in everyone’s team, its players that other don’t have that will win you a game.  If I had more money, he would be in my team.  Unfortuantly, I can’t at the moment, but look at him to be an upgrade option during the season.

If I could only pick one player from this bunch it would be Pav.  But this is because of the uniqueness of this year’s roster.  His dual positional, unaffected bye double makes him cheap at any price.  The fact that he is cheaper than other great forward options only helps his case more!

Go Pav!

BLOG written by Twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru.  Follow the Guru on twitter for more DT info, and send comments to via twitter to ensure they are read.  Happy dreamteaming!

@Dreamteam_Guru Unaffected Bye Player #1 Luke Power, Brisbane, Midfielder $362,900

Guru rated 59^th player in the league

Traded for Geelong’s Joel Corey, Midfielder $389,600

Guru rated 28^th player in the league

Initially my strategy was based around the bye.  I’m not trying to win the comp, I’m trying to win my league and as such picking players from Melbourne, Brisbane, Freo and Sydney made my strategy more sound.  When these teams have a bye, I won’t be playing in head to head competition, so I don’t need huge coverage of my bench.

That’s why I picked Luke Power in my midfield.  He is a high ranking Brisbane midfielder.  However, I looked at Brisbane and decided that having Brisbane players in my line up is too risky.  I have them finishing last this year, and although Power is quality, he won’t have the support to have prolific year dreamteam wise.  Add to that his age.  That’s why I traded.

Joel Corey is a bargain pick this year.  Last year, he was ranked in the top 5 of the competition, and injuries (and playing with injuries) has seen him slip down in my ranking to 28.   Thankfully, he has also slipped in dreamteam dollars, making him a good choice this year.  I would expect his price to rise and I believe he will be off the radar with a lot of other dreamteamers.  Montagna, Boyd, Ablett and Swan will be in a lot of peoples teams, but will they have Corey too?

I’m picking him now before his price rises too much!

BLOG written by @Dreamteam_Guru from Twitter.  To ensure all comments are read, send feedback via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Value Forward #3 Chris Knights, Adelaide $221,900

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 201st player in the league.

Injuries lead to a bad year for Chris Knights.  He played about 6 games, and was never match fit.  He was playing in a team doing poorly, and his performance reflected this too.

The good news for us dreamteamers is the above effected his dreamteam worth substantially.  At $221K, Chris Knights is a bargin.  Although he comes in at 201 in my rankings, last year he was probably among the elite options among dreamteam forwards.  For this reason alone I have included him in my side.

As mentioned yesterday, I traded my other value forward option in Mark Williams.  Although Williams is cheaper, Knights has the more value, as he won’t stay at $221K for long.  And at his price, if you are looking for value you can trade him early, or you can use him as a $221K keeper – unheard of!

Let compare him to other players near him in the rankings.

198: David Hille (168)
199. Josh Hill (168)
200. Brent Macaffer (167.5)
201. Chris Knights (167.333)
202. Josh Drummond (167.333)
203. Richard Tambling (167.333)
204. Tom Rockliff (167)

A few value options around then according to my ranking system.  Knights leads the list for me as his potential to clear the log jam at the 200s and break into the top 100 is a very real possibility. I am confident in this for this reason. 2009 average was 85. 2008 average was 83.  His 67 year last year we can write off to injuries.  This makes him a good buy.  I’m happy with him in my line up!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

Dreamteam_Guru Value Forward #2 Mark Williams, Essendon $162,000

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 445^th player in the league

Traded for Freo’s Tendai Mzungu $97,600, defender

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 530^th player in the league

This was a tough decision, but in the end it was one I made for money.

I wanted to upgrade Robert Warnock to Matthew L-Berger of Brisbane.  I wanted to keep my gun defenders, and not devalue any of them.  Trading Williams for a first year player saved me over $60K, which is what I needed to do the trade.

In Mzungu, I gain a dual position player that is unaffected by byes (in head to head competition).

By losing Mark Williams, I lose the necessity to trade out in round 24.

Mark Williams was only ever going to be a value pick up for me, and never a keeper.  The romantic in me liked him scoring the goal after the siren against St Kilda and that got my attention.

He will never be prolific in dreamteam, and although $162K is under value, you will only make about $100K from him.

Mzungu is an unknown quantity, and be might be the Michael Barlow of 2011.  He is one of the last selected into my team, but I think he could be a starting player for me come round 22.

As long he is given game time, he is a pick worth having.

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Value Forward #1 Andrew Krakouer

@DreamteamGuru rated 678th player in the league

I think he will be one of the most picked players this year, and you can understand why.  He has previous AFL experience, and has a super season in the WAFL.  Collingwood must of been laughing their heads off during trade week. Gaining Krakouer from the Gold Coast (he was pre-selected player) is quite a steal really. Considering Fraser couldn’t fit into the Collingwood side, I think they did quite well.

Yet according to my formula he is dead last.

His age and original draft position have hurt him in my formula. As he hasn’t played a game at the top level in the last 3 years (not since 2007), he doesn’t have an average score for the last 3 years, and his average games played is therefore zero too.

His total score... -3.

However, he is going to be first picked for me this season!

Funnily enough, Ablett (who is at the top of my list) won’t make it into the Guru’s side. So I’m only using the formula as a guide too!

This BLOG is written by @Dreamteam_Guru on Twittier.  To ensure all comments get read, please send your thoughts via Twitter.

@Dreamteam_Guru Value Ruck #2 Josh Fraser, Gold Coast $228,400

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 314^th player in the league

A very good choice in this year’s DT is Josh Fraser.

He didn’t play much last year for Collingwood which has seen his value drop.

The good thing about this, is that he wasn’t missing due to injury.  He simply wasn’t being picked to play.

So although I have picked Petrie (which is a risk due to him breaking a foot every other week last year), Josh Fraser has still proved to be durable.

Now let’s add to this the fact that he is playing for the Gold Coast now.  He is guaranteed game time.  He is a super important player for them.  Someone they can build a midfield around, and someone to assist the young ruckman they have on their list.

This can all turn into dreamteam value for us couch-coaches.

When I saw him listed at $228K, I thanked the guys at Champion Data.  Afterall, he is going to get game time, and he isn’t going to drop in value. Easy decision this year.

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Value Ruck #1 Drew Petrie, North Melbourne $209,700

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 224^th player

Petrie has tried valiantly for me not to pick him.

He broke three feet last year (true!), and is now suspended for round 1.

Why have I picked him?

Firstly, value.  He will go up $100K easy this year.

Secondly, reputation.  In my rankings last year, I had him sitting as the third best ruckman in the league behind Sandilands and Cox.  Now he is rated as the 15^th best ruckman. Context: Brogan and Bradley are ahead of him (according to my scale).

I don’t think many people would agree with that.

I am expecting Petrie to return strong and want to make up for such a bad 2010 season.  This could be a potential blessing for dreamteamers.

The other plus is that he has played preseason games. The roos wouldn’t have risked him if they thought his feet couldn’t stand it (sorry – pad Guru puns coming out here).

Given that he is only missing round 1, I have had to pick 2 ruckman that will be playing round one.  This has compromised my Gold Coast strategy slightly, but I’m okay with that!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.

@Dreamteam_Guru Value Midfielder #1 Dustin Martin, Richmond $298,800

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 135^th player in the league

Traded for Gold Coast’s Charlie Dixon, Forward $97,600

@Dreamteam_Guru rated 572^nd player in the league

Weird trade, eh?  With my mid/for strategy I was able to move a mid/for from my mids to my forwards, and then in effect trade a midfield for a forward.

Why did I do the trade? I wanted to free up some money so I could spend more on the second ruck.  In the end, that money has gone to my defence to pick up Broughton (discussed yesterday).

I liked Dustin Martin’s price - $298K for a player that will play 22 rounds this year and score well yet not be on everyone else’s team seemed like a good pick.

However, it does break one of the Guru’s golden rules: Never Pick a Second Year Player.  They are inevitably over priced and decrease in value during the season. Also, they find it hard to live up to their first year when they now get extra attention.

Sorry, Dustin – you had to go.

Dixon impressed me in the games against GWS and Sydney.  He looked to be in the Gold Coast’s best 22 which means lots of game time, and a lot of potential to increase in value.

Welcome to the Guru’s, Charlie!

I’m not expecting him to get much game time for me however.  He will be a fixtire on my bench, and will be cover for bye rounds.  But with my use of dual positions in my forward line, there should be better cover in most weeks for me.  This means that I am only looking for value out of Dixon, and I might upgrade him for another gun forward later in the season.

So I am now challenging Dixon to make me keep him!!!

This BLOG is written by twitter’s @Dreamteam_Guru. Please leave comments via twitter to ensure they get read.